The impact of healthcare visit timing on reported pertussis cough duration: Selection bias and disease pattern from reported cases in Michigan, USA, 2000–2010

Jennifer K. Knapp, Mark L. Wilson, Susan Murray, Matthew L. Boulton

Pertussis is a potentially serious respiratory illness characterized by cough of exceptionally long duration of up to approximately100 days. While macrolide antibiotics are an effective treatment, there is an ongoing debate whether they also shorten the length of cough symptoms. We investigated whether public health surveillance data for pertussis, in which cases are identified at diagnosis, are potentially affected by selection bias and the possible consequences for reported cough duration. Data on 4,794 pertussis cases reported during 2000-2010 were extracted from the Michigan Disease Surveillance System, a statewide, web-based communicable disease reporting system, to specifically investigate increased duration of cough observed in pertussis patients with delayed initial healthcare visit. A simulated population of cases was derived from the observed surveillance data and truncated week-by-week to evaluate the effects of bias associated with stratification on timing of antibiotics. Cases presenting for medical evaluation later in the clinical course were more likely to have experienced delayed antibiotic therapy and longer average cough duration. A comparable magnitude of increasing cough duration was also observed in the simulated data. By stratifying on initial medical visit, selection bias effects based on timing of healthcare visit were demonstrated. Stratifying or controlling for the timing of the initial case identification and accompanying antibiotic treatment can create artificial patterns of observed cough duration. In surveillance data, differences in symptom duration may arise from selection bias and should not be presumed to be related to early antibiotic treatment.