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Attention Score in Context
| Title |
Predictable Components of ENSO Evolution in Real-time Multi-Model Predictions
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Scientific Reports, October 2016
|
| DOI | 10.1038/srep35909 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Zhihai Zheng, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Michelle L’Heureux |
| Abstract |
The most predictable components of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution in real-time multi-model predictions are identified by applying an empirical orthogonal function analysis of the model data that maximizes the signal-to-noise ratio (MSN EOF). The normalized Niño3.4 index is analyzed for nine 3-month overlapping seasons. In this sense, the first most predictable component (MSN EOF1) is the decaying phase of ENSO during the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by persistence through autumn and winter. The second most predictable component of ENSO evolution, with lower prediction skill and smaller explained variance than MSN EOF1, corresponds to the growth during spring and then persistence in summer and autumn. This result suggests that decay phase of ENSO is more predictable than the growth phase. Also, the most predictable components and the forecast skills in dynamical and statistical models are similar overall, with some differences arising during spring season initial conditions. Finally, the reconstructed predictions, with only the first two MSN components, show higher skill than the model raw predictions. Therefore this method can be used as a diagnostic for model comparison and development, and it can provide a new perspective for the most predictable components of ENSO. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 2 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 1 | 50% |
| Switzerland | 1 | 50% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 2 | 100% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 24 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 24 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Master | 5 | 21% |
| Student > Postgraduate | 4 | 17% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 2 | 8% |
| Researcher | 2 | 8% |
| Librarian | 2 | 8% |
| Other | 0 | 0% |
| Unknown | 9 | 38% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 7 | 29% |
| Environmental Science | 4 | 17% |
| Economics, Econometrics and Finance | 1 | 4% |
| Social Sciences | 1 | 4% |
| Materials Science | 1 | 4% |
| Other | 0 | 0% |
| Unknown | 10 | 42% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 25 October 2016.
All research outputs
#17,823,285
of 22,896,955 outputs
Outputs from Scientific Reports
#87,390
of 123,724 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#223,881
of 313,854 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Scientific Reports
#2,598
of 3,611 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 22,896,955 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 19th percentile – i.e., 19% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 123,724 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 18.2. This one is in the 24th percentile – i.e., 24% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
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We're also able to compare this research output to 3,611 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 23rd percentile – i.e., 23% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.