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Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation

Overview of attention for article published in Science, April 2000
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (96th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
4 news outlets
blogs
2 blogs
policy
1 policy source
twitter
47 X users
wikipedia
9 Wikipedia pages

Citations

dimensions_citation
413 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
169 Mendeley
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Title
Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation
Published in
Science, April 2000
DOI 10.1126/science.288.5466.661
Pubmed ID
Authors

Tom Parsons, Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein, Aykut Barka, James H. Dieterich

Abstract

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 +/- 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 +/- 12% during the next decade.

X Demographics

X Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 47 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 169 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 4 2%
Turkey 3 2%
France 2 1%
Belgium 2 1%
Spain 2 1%
New Zealand 1 <1%
Netherlands 1 <1%
Germany 1 <1%
Italy 1 <1%
Other 0 0%
Unknown 152 90%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 43 25%
Student > Ph. D. Student 41 24%
Professor > Associate Professor 16 9%
Student > Master 16 9%
Student > Doctoral Student 10 6%
Other 27 16%
Unknown 16 9%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Earth and Planetary Sciences 98 58%
Engineering 20 12%
Medicine and Dentistry 5 3%
Arts and Humanities 5 3%
Social Sciences 4 2%
Other 14 8%
Unknown 23 14%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 85. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 14 February 2023.
All research outputs
#505,987
of 25,556,408 outputs
Outputs from Science
#12,078
of 83,115 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#250
of 40,546 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Science
#10
of 257 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 25,556,408 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 98th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 83,115 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 65.8. This one has done well, scoring higher than 85% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 40,546 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 257 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 96% of its contemporaries.