| Title |
Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Oecologia, December 2016
|
| DOI | 10.1007/s00442-016-3788-x |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Sarah M. Rockwell, Joseph M. Wunderle, T. Scott Sillett, Carol I. Bocetti, David N. Ewert, Dave Currie, Jennifer D. White, Peter P. Marra |
| Abstract |
Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland's warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to analyze two mark-recapture datasets: 2006-2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003-2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland's warbler and other Neotropical-Nearctic migratory bird species. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 28 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 8 | 29% |
| Spain | 2 | 7% |
| Germany | 1 | 4% |
| Mexico | 1 | 4% |
| Netherlands | 1 | 4% |
| Japan | 1 | 4% |
| Hungary | 1 | 4% |
| United Kingdom | 1 | 4% |
| Canada | 1 | 4% |
| Other | 0 | 0% |
| Unknown | 11 | 39% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 20 | 71% |
| Scientists | 5 | 18% |
| Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 2 | 7% |
| Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 1 | 4% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 153 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 1 | <1% |
| Unknown | 152 | 99% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Master | 30 | 20% |
| Researcher | 28 | 18% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 25 | 16% |
| Student > Bachelor | 22 | 14% |
| Other | 5 | 3% |
| Other | 18 | 12% |
| Unknown | 25 | 16% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 85 | 56% |
| Environmental Science | 22 | 14% |
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 4 | 3% |
| Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 3 | 2% |
| Arts and Humanities | 3 | 2% |
| Other | 5 | 3% |
| Unknown | 31 | 20% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 20. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 20 December 2016.
All research outputs
#1,800,201
of 24,836,260 outputs
Outputs from Oecologia
#223
of 4,419 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#36,099
of 430,669 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Oecologia
#5
of 42 outputs
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So far Altmetric has tracked 4,419 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a little more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 7.2. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 94% of its peers.
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