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Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift

Overview of attention for article published in Journal of The Royal Society Interface, July 2013
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Title
Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift
Published in
Journal of The Royal Society Interface, July 2013
DOI 10.1098/rsif.2013.0298
Pubmed ID
Authors

R. Yaari, G. Katriel, A. Huppert, J. B. Axelsen, L. Stone

Abstract

Seasonal influenza appears as annual oscillations in temperate regions of the world, yet little is known as to what drives these annual outbreaks and what factors are responsible for their inter-annual variability. Recent studies suggest that weather variables, such as absolute humidity, are the key drivers of annual influenza outbreaks. The rapid, punctuated, antigenic evolution of the influenza virus is another major factor. We present a new framework for modelling seasonal influenza based on a discrete-time, age-of-infection, epidemic model, which allows the calculation of the model's likelihood function in closed form. This framework may be used to perform model inference and parameter estimation rigorously. The modelling approach allows us to fit 11 years of Israeli influenza data, with the best models fitting the data with unusually high correlations in which r > 0.9. We show that using actual weather to modulate influenza transmission rate gives better results than using the inter-annual means of the weather variables, providing strong support for the role of weather in shaping the dynamics of influenza. This conclusion remains valid even when incorporating a more realistic depiction of the decay of immunity at the population level, which allows for discrete changes in immunity from year to year.

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X Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 2 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 59 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 3 5%
Vietnam 2 3%
Ghana 1 2%
France 1 2%
United Kingdom 1 2%
Israel 1 2%
Unknown 50 85%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 17 29%
Student > Ph. D. Student 15 25%
Student > Bachelor 4 7%
Student > Master 4 7%
Student > Doctoral Student 3 5%
Other 7 12%
Unknown 9 15%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 17 29%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 14 24%
Mathematics 7 12%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 3 5%
Immunology and Microbiology 2 3%
Other 4 7%
Unknown 12 20%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 2. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 07 June 2021.
All research outputs
#13,891,799
of 22,713,403 outputs
Outputs from Journal of The Royal Society Interface
#2,161
of 3,050 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#106,917
of 194,289 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Journal of The Royal Society Interface
#37
of 48 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 22,713,403 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 37th percentile – i.e., 37% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 3,050 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 27.7. This one is in the 27th percentile – i.e., 27% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 194,289 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 43rd percentile – i.e., 43% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 48 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 22nd percentile – i.e., 22% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.