| Title |
How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
BMC Medicine, May 2017
|
| DOI | 10.1186/s12916-017-0860-2 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
S. N. Etkind, A. E. Bone, B. Gomes, N. Lovell, C. J. Evans, I. J. Higginson, F. E. M. Murtagh |
| Abstract |
Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 341 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 125 | 37% |
| Spain | 24 | 7% |
| United States | 20 | 6% |
| Australia | 11 | 3% |
| Canada | 9 | 3% |
| Ireland | 5 | 1% |
| New Zealand | 5 | 1% |
| South Africa | 3 | <1% |
| Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of | 2 | <1% |
| Other | 20 | 6% |
| Unknown | 117 | 34% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 206 | 60% |
| Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 84 | 25% |
| Scientists | 46 | 13% |
| Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 3 | <1% |
| Unknown | 2 | <1% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 669 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 2 | <1% |
| Unknown | 667 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Master | 105 | 16% |
| Student > Bachelor | 78 | 12% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 60 | 9% |
| Researcher | 59 | 9% |
| Other | 50 | 7% |
| Other | 132 | 20% |
| Unknown | 185 | 28% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Medicine and Dentistry | 191 | 29% |
| Nursing and Health Professions | 141 | 21% |
| Social Sciences | 35 | 5% |
| Psychology | 20 | 3% |
| Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 16 | 2% |
| Other | 59 | 9% |
| Unknown | 207 | 31% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 506. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 24 October 2023.
All research outputs
#51,542
of 26,017,215 outputs
Outputs from BMC Medicine
#61
of 4,075 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#1,067
of 330,982 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Medicine
#1
of 49 outputs
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