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Novel analyses of long-term data provide a scientific basis for chlorophyll-a thresholds in San Francisco Bay

Overview of attention for article published in Estuarine Coastal & Shelf Science, October 2017
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Title
Novel analyses of long-term data provide a scientific basis for chlorophyll-a thresholds in San Francisco Bay
Published in
Estuarine Coastal & Shelf Science, October 2017
DOI 10.1016/j.ecss.2017.07.009
Pubmed ID
Authors

Martha Sutula, Raphael Kudela, James D. Hagy, Lawrence W. Harding, David Senn, James E. Cloern, Suzanne Bricker, Gry Mine Berg, Marcus Beck

Abstract

San Francisco Bay (SFB), USA, is highly enriched in nitrogen and phosphorus, but has been resistant to the classic symptoms of eutrophication associated with over-production of phytoplankton. Observations in recent years suggest that this resistance may be weakening, shown by: significant increases of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and decreases of dissolved oxygen (DO), common occurrences of phytoplankton taxa that can form Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), and algal toxins in water and mussels reaching levels of concern. As a result, managers now ask: what levels of chl-a in SFB constitute tipping points of phytoplankton biomass beyond which water quality will become degraded, requiring significant nutrient reductions to avoid impairments? We analyzed data for DO, phytoplankton species composition, chl-a, and algal toxins to derive quantitative relationships between three indicators (HAB abundance, toxin concentrations, DO) and chl-a. Quantile regressions relating HAB abundance and DO to chl-a were significant, indicating SFB is at increased risk of adverse HAB and low DO levels if chl-a continues to increase. Conditional probability analysis (CPA) showed chl-a of 13 mg m-3 as a "protective" threshold below which probabilities for exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance and toxins were reduced. This threshold was similar to chl-a of 13 - 16 mg m-3 that would meet a SFB-wide 80 % saturation Water Quality Criterion (WQC) for DO. Higher "at risk" chl-a thresholds from 25 - 40 mg m-3 corresponded to 0.5 probability of exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance, and for DO below a WQC of 5.0 mg L-1 designated for lower South Bay (LSB) and South Bay (SB). We submit these thresholds as a basis to assess eutrophication status of SFB and to inform nutrient management actions. This approach is transferrable to other estuaries to derive chl-a thresholds protective against eutrophication.

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Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 58 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 58 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 17 29%
Student > Master 7 12%
Student > Ph. D. Student 6 10%
Other 3 5%
Student > Doctoral Student 3 5%
Other 6 10%
Unknown 16 28%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 24 41%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 9 16%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 5 9%
Nursing and Health Professions 1 2%
Engineering 1 2%
Other 0 0%
Unknown 18 31%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 13 July 2017.
All research outputs
#21,061,429
of 25,809,966 outputs
Outputs from Estuarine Coastal & Shelf Science
#2,921
of 3,457 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#260,019
of 333,585 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Estuarine Coastal & Shelf Science
#63
of 87 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 25,809,966 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 10th percentile – i.e., 10% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 3,457 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a little more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 5.1. This one is in the 7th percentile – i.e., 7% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 333,585 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 11th percentile – i.e., 11% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 87 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 1st percentile – i.e., 1% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.