Incorporating fragmentation and non‐native species into distribution models to inform fluvial fish conservation

Andrew T. Taylor, Monica Papeş, James M. Long

Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) is a fluvial-specialist species experiencing continual range loss, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We employed species distribution models (SDMs) to disentangle which factors are contributing most to shoal bass range loss by estimating a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and by estimating a series of current, occupied distributions that also incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non-native species, and fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). Model construction allowed for interspecific relationships between non-native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of current occupied distribution illustrated increased range loss as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from current occupied models indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non-native congeners, wherein non-natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that free-flowing fragment lengths of > 100 km were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily-available, diverse geospatial datasets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.