| Title |
Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Demography, October 2012
|
| DOI | 10.1007/s13524-012-0145-5 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Rob J. Hyndman, Heather Booth, Farah Yasmeen |
| Abstract |
When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and interpretable functions of rates. The product-ratio functional forecasting method models and forecasts the geometric mean of subpopulation rates and the ratio of subpopulation rates to product rates. Coherence is imposed by constraining the forecast ratio function through stationary time series models. The method is applied to sex-specific data for Sweden and state-specific data for Australia. Based on out-of-sample forecasts, the coherent forecasts are at least as accurate in overall terms as comparable independent forecasts, and forecast accuracy is homogenized across subpopulations. |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 95 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 2 | 2% |
| Malaysia | 1 | 1% |
| United States | 1 | 1% |
| Austria | 1 | 1% |
| Unknown | 90 | 95% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Researcher | 20 | 21% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 18 | 19% |
| Student > Master | 9 | 9% |
| Professor | 7 | 7% |
| Professor > Associate Professor | 6 | 6% |
| Other | 24 | 25% |
| Unknown | 11 | 12% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Mathematics | 23 | 24% |
| Economics, Econometrics and Finance | 19 | 20% |
| Social Sciences | 13 | 14% |
| Medicine and Dentistry | 6 | 6% |
| Business, Management and Accounting | 5 | 5% |
| Other | 13 | 14% |
| Unknown | 16 | 17% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 4. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 26 July 2014.
All research outputs
#7,200,861
of 22,758,963 outputs
Outputs from Demography
#1,206
of 1,857 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#54,299
of 172,731 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Demography
#19
of 27 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 22,758,963 research outputs across all sources so far. This one has received more attention than most of these and is in the 67th percentile.
So far Altmetric has tracked 1,857 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 24.5. This one is in the 34th percentile – i.e., 34% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
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We're also able to compare this research output to 27 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 29th percentile – i.e., 29% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.