Title |
Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
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Published in |
International Journal of Public Health, October 2017
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DOI | 10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Jo-An Atkinson, Dylan Knowles, John Wiggers, Michael Livingston, Robin Room, Ante Prodan, Geoff McDonnell, Eloise O’Donnell, Sandra Jones, Paul S. Haber, David Muscatello, Nadine Ezard, Nghi Phung, Louise Freebairn, Devon Indig, Lucie Rychetnik, Jaithri Ananthapavan, Sonia Wutzke, On behalf of the alcohol modelling consortium |
Abstract |
Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources. |
X Demographics
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
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United States | 1 | 50% |
Unknown | 1 | 50% |
Demographic breakdown
Type | Count | As % |
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Members of the public | 1 | 50% |
Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 1 | 50% |
Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
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Unknown | 58 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
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Student > Ph. D. Student | 12 | 21% |
Other | 6 | 10% |
Professor | 5 | 9% |
Student > Doctoral Student | 3 | 5% |
Student > Bachelor | 3 | 5% |
Other | 12 | 21% |
Unknown | 17 | 29% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
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Medicine and Dentistry | 12 | 21% |
Nursing and Health Professions | 4 | 7% |
Psychology | 4 | 7% |
Engineering | 3 | 5% |
Mathematics | 2 | 3% |
Other | 9 | 16% |
Unknown | 24 | 41% |