| Title |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Ambio, October 2017
|
| DOI | 10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Jean-Claude Gascard, Kathrin Riemann-Campe, Rüdiger Gerdes, Harald Schyberg, Roger Randriamampianina, Michael Karcher, Jinlun Zhang, Mehrad Rafizadeh |
| Abstract |
The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 5 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Norway | 1 | 20% |
| Finland | 1 | 20% |
| Unknown | 3 | 60% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 4 | 80% |
| Scientists | 1 | 20% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 50 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 50 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Bachelor | 10 | 20% |
| Student > Master | 10 | 20% |
| Researcher | 9 | 18% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 8 | 16% |
| Student > Doctoral Student | 1 | 2% |
| Other | 3 | 6% |
| Unknown | 9 | 18% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 9 | 18% |
| Environmental Science | 6 | 12% |
| Social Sciences | 6 | 12% |
| Engineering | 5 | 10% |
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 4 | 8% |
| Other | 8 | 16% |
| Unknown | 12 | 24% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 20. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 07 January 2018.
All research outputs
#1,578,139
of 23,006,268 outputs
Outputs from Ambio
#273
of 1,632 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#34,463
of 328,360 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Ambio
#5
of 38 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 23,006,268 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 93rd percentile: it's in the top 10% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 1,632 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 14.1. This one has done well, scoring higher than 83% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 328,360 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 89% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 38 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done well, scoring higher than 86% of its contemporaries.