Impact of updating the non-radiation parameters in the ICRP 103 detriment model

Joachim Breckow, Samaneh Emami, Sara Amalhaf, Arwin Beshgard, Jonas Buermeyer, Kaija Spruck

The radiation detriment in ICRP 103 is defined as the product of the organ-specific risk coefficient and the damage that may be associated with a cancer type or hereditary effect. This is used to indicate a weighted risk according to the radiation sensitivity of different organs and the severity of damage that may possibly arise. While the risk refers to radiation exposure parameters, the extent of damage is independent of radiation. The parameters that are not affected by radiation are lethality, impairment of quality of life, and reduced life expectancy, which are considered as quantities associated with the severity of disease or damage. The damage and thus the detriment appear to be mostly affected by lethality, which is the quotient of the age-standardized mortality rate to the incidence rate. The analysis of the detriment presented in this paper focuses on the influence of the lethality on the detriment from 1980 to 2012 in the USA and Germany. While the lethality in this period covering more than three decades has decreased approximately linearly by 30% (both USA and Germany), within the same period the detriment declined only by 13% in the USA and by 15% in Germany. If only based on these two countries, an update on the detriment parameters with reference to 2007, when ICRP 103 was released, would result in a reduced weighted risk, i.e. the radiation detriment would be reduced by 10 to 15% from originally 5.7% per Sv for the whole population to roughly 5% per Sv.