Two-hour post-challenge glucose is a better predictor of adverse outcome after myocardial infarction than fasting or admission glucose in patients without diabetes

Two-hour post-challenge glucose is a better predictor of adverse outcome after myocardial infarction than fasting or admission glucose in patients without diabetes

Acta Diabetologica, February 2018

29450734

Sudipta Chattopadhyay, Anish George, Joseph John, Thozhukat Sathyapalan

We evaluate prevalence of new abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT) in post-MI survivors without known diabetes (DM) if guidelines are followed and compare the ability of admission (APG), fasting (FPG) and 2-h post-load plasma glucose (2h-PG) to predict prognosis. A total of 674 patients were followed up for 4 years for incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) of cardiovascular death, non-fatal re-infarction or non-haemorrhagic stroke. Ability of models including APG, FPG and 2h-PG to predict MACE was compared. Of the total, 93-96% of impaired glucose tolerance and 64-75% of DM would be missed with current guidelines. MACE was higher in the upper quartiles of 2h-PG. When 2h-PG and FPG were included simultaneously in models, only 2h-PG predicted MACE (HR 1.12, CI 1.04-1.20, p = 0.0012), all cause mortality (HR 1.17, CI 1.05-1.30, p = 0.0039), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.17, CI 1.02-1.33, p = 0.0205) and non-fatal MI (HR 1.10, CI 1.01-1.20, p = 0.0291). Adding 2h-PG significantly improved ability of models including FPG (χ2 = 16.01, df = 1, p = 0.0001) or FPG and APG (χ2 = 17.36, df = 1, p = 0.000) to predict MACE. Model including 2h-PG only had the lowest Akaike's information criteria and highest Akaike weights suggesting that this was the best in predicting events. Adding 2h-PG to models including FPG or APG with other co-variates yielded continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.22 (p = 0.026) and 0.27 (p = 0.005) and categorical NRI of 0.09 (p = 0.032) and 0.12 (p = 0.014), respectively. Adding 2 h-PG to models including only FPG, only APG and both yielded integrated discrimination improvement of 0.012 (p = 0.015), 0.022 (p = 0.001) and 0.013 (p = 0.014), respectively. AGT is under-diagnosed on current guidelines. 2h-PG is a better predictor of prognosis compared to APG and FPG.