Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in the home: Can area characteristics identify at-risk communities in the Republic of Ireland?

Siobhán Masterson, Conor Teljeur, John Cullinan, Andrew W. Murphy, Conor Deasy, Akke Vellinga

Internationally, the majority of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests where resuscitation is attempted (OHCAs) occur in private residential locations i.e. at home. The prospect of survival for this patient group is universally dismal. Understanding of the area-level factors that affect the incidence of OHCA at home may help national health planners when implementing community resuscitation training and services. We performed spatial smoothing using Bayesian conditional autoregression on case data from the Irish OHCA register. We further corrected for correlated findings using area level variables extracted and constructed for national census data. We found that increasing deprivation was associated with increased case incidence. The methodology used also enabled us to identify specific areas with higher than expected case incidence. Our study demonstrates novel use of Bayesian conditional autoregression in quantifying area level risk of a health event with high mortality across an entire country with a diverse settlement pattern. It adds to the evidence that the likelihood of OHCA resuscitation events is associated with greater deprivation and suggests that area deprivation should be considered when planning resuscitation services. Finally, our study demonstrates the utility of Bayesian conditional autoregression as a methodological approach that could be applied in any country using registry data and area level census data.