| Title |
Role of meteorological conditions in reported chickenpox cases in Wuhan and Hong Kong, China
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
BMC Infectious Diseases, August 2017
|
| DOI | 10.1186/s12879-017-2640-1 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Banghua Chen, Ayako Sumi, Lei Wang, Wang Zhou, Nobumichi Kobayashi |
| Abstract |
Chickenpox is a common contagious disease that remains an important public health issue worldwide. Over 90% of unvaccinated individuals become infected, but infection occurs at different ages in different parts of the world. Many people have been infected by 20 to 30 years of age in China, and adults and pregnant women who become infected often develop severe infection. Furthermore, a mortality rate of 2-3 per 100,000 infected persons has been reported. In this study, we explore the temperature-dependent transition of patterns of reported chickenpox cases in two large subtropical climate cities, Wuhan and Hong Kong, China, to aid in the prediction of epidemics and preparation for the effects of climatic changes on epidemiology of chickenpox in China. We used a time series analysis comprising a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Specifically, the following time series data were analyzed: data of reported chickenpox cases and meteorological data, including the mean temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall in Wuhan and Hong Kong from January 2008 to June 2015. The time series data of chickenpox for both Wuhan and Hong Kong have two peaks per year, one in winter and another in spring, indicating a bimodal cycle. To investigate the source of the bimodal cycle of the chickenpox data, we defined the contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q 1, and the 6-month cycle, Q 2, as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle and a 6-month cycle, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time-series data. The Q 1 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were positively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of each city. Conversely, the Q 2 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were negatively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of Wuhan and Hong Kong. Our results showed that the mean temperature and rainfall have a significant influence on the incidence of chickenpox, and might be important predictors of chickenpox incidence in Wuhan and Hong Kong. |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 44 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 44 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Master | 11 | 25% |
| Researcher | 9 | 20% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 5 | 11% |
| Student > Doctoral Student | 2 | 5% |
| Other | 2 | 5% |
| Other | 4 | 9% |
| Unknown | 11 | 25% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Medicine and Dentistry | 11 | 25% |
| Nursing and Health Professions | 8 | 18% |
| Engineering | 3 | 7% |
| Environmental Science | 2 | 5% |
| Mathematics | 2 | 5% |
| Other | 7 | 16% |
| Unknown | 11 | 25% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 18 March 2018.
All research outputs
#20,469,520
of 23,028,364 outputs
Outputs from BMC Infectious Diseases
#6,523
of 7,725 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#277,109
of 317,592 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Infectious Diseases
#139
of 163 outputs
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