Balancing nanotoxicity and returns in health applications: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

D.A. Gkika, L. Magafas, P. Cool, J. Braet

Over the past 30 years, there have been significant advancements in the field of nanomaterials. The possibility to use them in applications such as cancer treatment is extremely promising; however, the toxicity of many nanomaterials as well as the high costs associated with their use is still a concern. This paper aims to study the connection between nanomaterial toxicity and cost. This synergy may be interpreted as a different version of the classic "Prisoner's Dilemma" game, which in this case attempts to explain the possible outcomes of cooperation versus conflict between science advocating for the use of high-risk, possibly toxic materials due to their high returns, and society that might be dubious about the use of high-risk materials. In an effort to create diverse evaluation methodologies, this work uses a forecast horizon to evaluate the current status and expected future of the nanomaterials market. The historical progress of each market, toxicity information, and possible returns stemming from their use is taken into account to analyze the predictions. Our results suggest various trends for the associated costs and nanotoxicity of the studied materials.