Gesundheitsausgabenentwicklung und der Einfluss des demografischen Wandels

Jona T. Stahmeyer, Siegfried Geyer, Jelena Epping, Juliane Tetzlaff, Sveja Eberhard

The development of healthcare expenditures and the impact of demographic change are the subject of a controversial debate. Yearly healthcare expenditures have more than doubled between 1992 and 2015 and are often justified by the aging demographic. The majority of expenses are paid by the statutory health insurance (SHI). The aim of the current study was to evaluate the contribution of the demographic change to increasing total per capita expenditures in the SHI as well as to analyze the development and the impact in individual areas of spending.We calculated average per capita expenditures from 2004 to 2015 based on data from the German Federal (Social) Insurance Office. Information on the age distribution in SHI was derived from official statistics of the Federal Ministry of Health. To determine the impact of demographic change on per capita expenditures, age distribution was standardized based on 2004 data. Additionally, the impact of inflation and other factors was determined.The results show an increase in per capita expenditures from €1722 in 2004 to €2656 in 2015 (+54.2%). Assuming a constant age distribution at the 2004 level, average per capita expenditures would have increased by 44.9%. The relative share of demographic change is only 17.3%; 32.2% could be explained by inflation and 50.5% are based on other factors. We observed large differences in the increase for the individual areas of spending, which can partly be explained by the impact of demographic change.This analysis illustrates that the demographic change is not the frequently claimed cost driver in healthcare. Other factors have a substantially greater impact on healthcare expenditures.