Time-dependent risk factors associated with the decline of estimated GFR in CKD patients

Wen-xiu Chang, Shigeyuki Arai, Yoshifuru Tamura, Takanori Kumagai, Tatsuru Ota, Shigeru Shibata, Yoshihide Fujigaki, Zhong-yang Shen, Shunya Uchida

Targeting the modifiable risk factors may help halt the progression of CKD, thus risk factor analysis is better performed using the parameters in the follow-up. This study aimed to examine the time-dependent risk factors for CKD progression using time-averaged values and to investigate the characteristics of rapid progression group. This is a retrospective cohort study enrolling 770 patients of CKD stage 3-4. Time-dependent parameters were calculated as time-averaged values by a trapezoidal rule. % decline of estimated GFR (eGFR) per year from entry was divided to three groups: <10 % (stable), 10-25 % (moderate progression), and ≥25 % (rapid progression). Multivariate regression analyses were employed for the baseline and the time-averaged datasets. eGFR decline was 2.83 ± 4.04 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year (8.8 ± 12.9 %) in male and 1.66 ± 3.23 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year (5.4 ± 11.0 %) in female (p < 0.001). % decline of eGFR was associated with male, proteinuria, phosphorus, and systolic blood pressure as risk factors and with age, albumin, and hemoglobin as protective factors using either dataset. Baseline eGFR and diabetic nephropathy appeared in the baseline dataset, while uric acid appeared in the time-averaged dataset. The rapid progression group was associated with proteinuria, phosphorus, albumin, and hemoglobin in the follow-up. These results suggest that time-averaged values provide insightful clinical guide in targeting the risk factors. Rapid decline of eGFR is strongly associated with hyperphosphatemia, proteinuria, and anemia indicating that these risk factors should be intervened in the follow-up of CKD.