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X Demographics
Mendeley readers
Attention Score in Context
| Title |
The Betting Odds Rating System: Using soccer forecasts to forecast soccer
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
PLOS ONE, June 2018
|
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0198668 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Fabian Wunderlich, Daniel Memmert |
| Abstract |
Betting odds are frequently found to outperform mathematical models in sports related forecasting tasks, however the factors contributing to betting odds are not fully traceable and in contrast to rating-based forecasts no straightforward measure of team-specific quality is deducible from the betting odds. The present study investigates the approach of combining the methods of mathematical models and the information included in betting odds. A soccer forecasting model based on the well-known ELO rating system and taking advantage of betting odds as a source of information is presented. Data from almost 15.000 soccer matches (seasons 2007/2008 until 2016/2017) are used, including both domestic matches (English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A) and international matches (UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europe League). The novel betting odds based ELO model is shown to outperform classic ELO models, thus demonstrating that betting odds prior to a match contain more relevant information than the result of the match itself. It is shown how the novel model can help to gain valuable insights into the quality of soccer teams and its development over time, thus having a practical benefit in performance analysis. Moreover, it is argued that network based approaches might help in further improving rating and forecasting methods. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 24 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 2 | 8% |
| Canada | 2 | 8% |
| Norway | 2 | 8% |
| United States | 2 | 8% |
| Denmark | 1 | 4% |
| Portugal | 1 | 4% |
| Unknown | 14 | 58% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 21 | 88% |
| Scientists | 3 | 13% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 85 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 85 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Master | 17 | 20% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 13 | 15% |
| Researcher | 8 | 9% |
| Student > Bachelor | 8 | 9% |
| Student > Doctoral Student | 5 | 6% |
| Other | 11 | 13% |
| Unknown | 23 | 27% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Sports and Recreations | 17 | 20% |
| Computer Science | 16 | 19% |
| Social Sciences | 5 | 6% |
| Mathematics | 4 | 5% |
| Decision Sciences | 3 | 4% |
| Other | 18 | 21% |
| Unknown | 22 | 26% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 32. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 29 May 2023.
All research outputs
#1,275,856
of 25,759,158 outputs
Outputs from PLOS ONE
#16,001
of 224,475 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#26,956
of 344,245 outputs
Outputs of similar age from PLOS ONE
#300
of 3,257 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 25,759,158 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 95th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 224,475 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 15.8. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 92% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 344,245 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 92% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 3,257 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 90% of its contemporaries.