Food patterns in relation to weight change and incidence of type 2 diabetes, coronary events and stroke in the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort

Ulrika Ericson, Louise Brunkwall, Joana Alves Dias, Isabel Drake, Sophie Hellstrand, Bo Gullberg, Emily Sonestedt, Peter M. Nilsson, Elisabet Wirfält, Marju Orho-Melander

We examined if data-driven food-patterns associate with weight change, incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary events (CE) and stroke. The study included 20,487 individuals (61% women) from the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort, 45-74 years, without diabetes and CVD at baseline (1991-1996) and who did not report dietary changes. Diet was measured with a modified diet history method. During 15 years follow-up, 2206 T2D, 1571 CE and 1332 stroke cases were identified. Data on weight change after 16.7 years were available in 2627 individuals. From principal component analysis, we identified six food-patterns which were similar in women and men. The first pattern, explaining 7% of the variance, was characterized by high intake of fibre-rich bread, breakfast cereals, fruits, vegetables, fish and low-fat yoghurt, and by low intake of low-fibre bread. This health conscious pattern was associated with lower T2D risk (HR comparing highest quintile with lowest: 0.75; 95% CI 0.61-0.92, 0.82; 95% CI 0.68-1.00 in women and men, respectively, P trends = 0.003, 0.01) and CE (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.58-1.02, HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.68-1.01, P trends = 0.05, 0.07), and in men also with lower risk of ischemic stroke (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.54-0.88; P trend = 0.001) and less pronounced weight gain (0.93 kg/10 years, P trend = 0.03). A low-fat product pattern was associated with increased T2D risk in gender combined analyses (P trend = 0.03) and a pattern characterized by dressing and vegetables with lower CE risk in men (P trend = 0.02). Our main finding was that a dietary pattern indicating health conscious food choices was associated with lower risk of cardiometabolic diseases in both genders.