Interactions between rising CO2 and temperature drive accelerated flowering in model plants under changing conditions of the last century

S. Michael Walker, Joy K. Ward

Past studies have shown that flowering times have accelerated over the last century. These responses are often attributed to rising temperature, although short-term field experiments with warming treatments have under-estimated accelerations in flowering time that have been observed in long-term field surveys. Thus, there appears to be a missing factor(s) for explaining accelerated flowering over the last century. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) is a possible candidate, and its contributions to affecting flowering time over historic periods are not well understood. This is likely because rising [CO2] is confounded with temperature in the field and preindustrial [CO2] studies are relatively rare. To address this, we tested the individual and interactive effects of rising [CO2] and temperature between preindustrial and modern periods on flowering time in the model system, Arabidopsis thaliana. We used a variety of genotypes originating from diverse locations, allowing us to test intraspecific responses to last-century climate change. We found that accelerated flowering time between the full-preindustrial and full-modern treatments was mainly driven by an interaction between rising [CO2] and temperature, rather than through the individual effects of either factor in isolation. Furthermore, accelerated flowering time was driven by enhanced plant growth rates and not through changes in plant size at flowering. Thus, the interaction between rising [CO2] and temperature may be key for explaining large accelerations in flowering times that have been observed over the last century and that could not be explained by rising temperature alone.