Strange Harvest: a Cross-sectional Ecological Analysis of the Association Between Historic Lynching Events and 2010–2014 County Mortality Rates

Janice C. Probst, Saundra Glover, Victor Kirksey

While the causes of lynching, a violent expression of racism, have been explored, little research has addressed the long-term consequences of this phenomenon. We examined the associaton between living in a county with a history of lynching and contemporary mortality rates within Southern US states. County-level data for lynchings between 1877 and 1950 were available for 1221 counties. Lynching rates were standardized to the 1930 population. Age-adjusted mortality rates were aggregated over 2010-2014 to allow sufficient observations in small counties. Multivariable linear regression examined the association between lynching rate categories and mortality while holding other county characteristics constant. Overall age-adjusted mortality ranged from 863 deaths per 100,000 persons in counties with no recorded lynchings to 910 in the highest lynching rate counties (p < 0.000). In adjusted models, living in the highest versus lowest lynching category was associated with 34.9 (95% confidence interval 13.3-56.7) additional deaths per 100,000 per year for white males, 23.7 (95% CI 7.48-40.0) deaths for white females, and 31.0 (95% CI 3.6-58.4) deaths for African American females. No association was found for African American male death rates (31.3; 95% CI - 13.6 to 76.1). The mechanisms through which historic lynching events might be associated with contemporary mortality rates are not clear. We advocate further research into structural characteristics of counties that may influence such disparities.