| Title |
A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Journal of Mathematical Biology, August 2018
|
| DOI | 10.1007/s00285-018-1285-z |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
M. G. Roberts, R. I. Hickson, J. M. McCaw, L. Talarmain |
| Abstract |
We propose and analyse a model for the dynamics of a single strain of an influenza-like infection. The model incorporates waning acquired immunity to infection and punctuated antigenic drift of the virus, employing a set of differential equations within a season and a discrete map between seasons. We show that the between-season map displays a variety of qualitatively different dynamics: fixed points, periodic solutions, or more complicated behaviour suggestive of chaos. For some example parameters we demonstrate the existence of two distinct basins of attraction, that is the initial conditions determine the long term dynamics. Our results suggest that there is no reason to expect influenza dynamics to be regular, or to expect past epidemics to give a clear indication of future seasons' behaviour. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 5 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 2 | 40% |
| United Kingdom | 1 | 20% |
| Unknown | 2 | 40% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Scientists | 3 | 60% |
| Members of the public | 2 | 40% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 16 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 16 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Researcher | 3 | 19% |
| Student > Postgraduate | 2 | 13% |
| Student > Master | 2 | 13% |
| Lecturer > Senior Lecturer | 1 | 6% |
| Professor > Associate Professor | 1 | 6% |
| Other | 1 | 6% |
| Unknown | 6 | 38% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Mathematics | 3 | 19% |
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 2 | 13% |
| Medicine and Dentistry | 2 | 13% |
| Environmental Science | 1 | 6% |
| Engineering | 1 | 6% |
| Other | 0 | 0% |
| Unknown | 7 | 44% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 5. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 29 August 2018.
All research outputs
#6,323,164
of 23,102,082 outputs
Outputs from Journal of Mathematical Biology
#118
of 665 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#110,812
of 334,863 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Journal of Mathematical Biology
#4
of 18 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 23,102,082 research outputs across all sources so far. This one has received more attention than most of these and is in the 72nd percentile.
So far Altmetric has tracked 665 research outputs from this source. They receive a mean Attention Score of 3.6. This one has done well, scoring higher than 82% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 334,863 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 66% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 18 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done well, scoring higher than 77% of its contemporaries.