A method for using real world data in breast cancer modeling

Monika Pobiruchin, Sylvia Bochum, Uwe M. Martens, Meinhard Kieser, Wendelin Schramm

Today, hospitals and other health care-related institutions are accumulating a growing bulk of real world clinical data. Such data offer new possibilities for the generation of disease models for the health economic evaluation. In this article, we propose a new approach to leverage cancer registry data for the development of Markov models. Records of breast cancer patients from a clinical cancer registry were used to construct a real world data driven disease model. We describe a model generation process which maps database structures to disease state definitions based on medical expert knowledge. Software was programmed in Java to automatically derive a model structure and transition probabilities. We illustrate our method with the reconstruction of a published breast cancer reference model derived primarily from clinical study data. In doing so, we exported longitudinal patient data from a clinical cancer registry covering eight years. The patient cohort (n=892) comprised HER2-positive and HER2-negative women treated with or without Trastuzumab. The models generated with this method for the respective patient cohorts were comparable to the reference model in their structure and treatment effects. However, our computed disease models reflect a more detailed picture of the transition probabilities, especially for disease free survival and recurrence. Our work presents an approach to extract Markov models semi-automatically using real world data from a clinical cancer registry. Health care decision makers may benefit from more realistic disease models to improve health care-related planning and actions based on their own data.