| Title |
Alternative Projections of the U.S. population
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Demography, November 1990
|
| DOI | 10.2307/2061575 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Dennis A. Ahlburg, James W. Vaupel |
| Abstract |
The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest. |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 19 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 1 | 5% |
| Unknown | 18 | 95% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 7 | 37% |
| Student > Master | 4 | 21% |
| Professor | 2 | 11% |
| Student > Doctoral Student | 1 | 5% |
| Student > Bachelor | 1 | 5% |
| Other | 2 | 11% |
| Unknown | 2 | 11% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Social Sciences | 9 | 47% |
| Arts and Humanities | 2 | 11% |
| Economics, Econometrics and Finance | 2 | 11% |
| Business, Management and Accounting | 1 | 5% |
| Psychology | 1 | 5% |
| Other | 1 | 5% |
| Unknown | 3 | 16% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 6. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 01 January 2011.
All research outputs
#4,920,751
of 23,630,563 outputs
Outputs from Demography
#939
of 1,896 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#1,978
of 17,086 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Demography
#5
of 8 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 23,630,563 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done well and is in the 76th percentile: it's in the top 25% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 1,896 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 25.9. This one is in the 43rd percentile – i.e., 43% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
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