The Growing Burden of Invasive Melanoma: Projections of Incidence Rates and Numbers of New Cases in Six Susceptible Populations through 2031

David C. Whiteman, Adele C. Green, Catherine M. Olsen

New melanoma therapies are being developed rapidly, complementing prevention and detection strategies for disease control. Estimating the future burden of melanoma is necessary for deciding how best to deploy limited resources to achieve this goal. Using three decades of cancer registry data (1982-2011) from six populations with moderate-to-high melanoma incidence (US Whites, United Kingdom (UK), Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand), we applied age-period-cohort models to describe current trends and project future incidence rates and numbers of melanomas out to 2031. Between 1982-2011, melanoma rates in US Whites, UK, Sweden and Norway increased at >3% annually and are projected to continue rising until at least 2022. Melanoma incidence in Australia has been declining since 2005 (-0.7% p.a.), while melanoma incidence in New Zealand is increasing but projected to decline soon. The numbers of new melanoma cases will rise in all six populations due to aging populations and high age-specific rates in the elderly. In US Whites, annual new cases will rise from around 70,000 in 2007-11 to 116,000 in 2026-31 (79% attributable to rising age-specific rates, 21% to population growth and aging). The continued increases in case numbers in all six populations out to 2031 will increase the challenges for melanoma control.