Trouble in paradise: The crime and health outcomes of the Surfers Paradise licensed venue lockout

Dominique de Andrade, Ross Homel, Michael Townsley

The lockout intervention has become embedded in Australian alcohol policy with little scientific evidence of its effectiveness in reducing violence and disorder. This paper reports an evaluation of the Queensland lockout pilot in Surfers Paradise. Patrons could not enter or re-enter licensed venues after 3 am, while patrons inside at this time could stay until close. Using police and ambulance data, time series analyses examined the impact of tourism seasons and the lockout on rates of crime, violence, injury and intoxication. Additional analyses were also conducted to show spatial and temporal changes in crime over time. Both police and ambulance data showed that the lockout introduction had no statistically significant impact on rates of crime, violence, head and neck injuries, and intoxication over the 2 years following lockout. Hot spot maps indicated limited spatial shift of crime within Surfers Paradise following the lockout introduction, with evidence of a temporary intensification of crime in already established hot spots. We found a moderate statistically significant change in the 24 h distribution of crime after the lockout implementation, suggesting temporal displacement of crime. Results support the small existing body of evidence on lockouts that indicates they are largely ineffective in reducing crime and injuries in entertainment districts. As multi-pronged strategies that include a lockout gain in popularity, further investigation should focus on identifying the key drivers of successful interventions such as the Newcastle strategy, to better refine these interventions for replication and evaluation elsewhere. [De Andrade D, Homel R, Townsley M. Trouble in paradise: The crime and health outcomes of the Surfers Paradise licensed venue lockout. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;36:xxx-xxx].].