| Title |
The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
BMC Infectious Diseases, April 2016
|
| DOI | 10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Raphael Ximenes, Marcos Amaku, Luis Fernandez Lopez, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho, Marcelo Nascimento Burattini, David Greenhalgh, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Claudio José Struchiner, Eduardo Massad |
| Abstract |
Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 49 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 8 | 16% |
| United States | 5 | 10% |
| Spain | 2 | 4% |
| Australia | 2 | 4% |
| Chile | 2 | 4% |
| Germany | 1 | 2% |
| Ecuador | 1 | 2% |
| Mexico | 1 | 2% |
| Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of | 1 | 2% |
| Other | 5 | 10% |
| Unknown | 21 | 43% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 33 | 67% |
| Scientists | 7 | 14% |
| Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 6 | 12% |
| Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 3 | 6% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 84 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 2 | 2% |
| Brazil | 1 | 1% |
| Unknown | 81 | 96% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Researcher | 18 | 21% |
| Student > Master | 15 | 18% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 11 | 13% |
| Student > Bachelor | 5 | 6% |
| Other | 5 | 6% |
| Other | 16 | 19% |
| Unknown | 14 | 17% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 15 | 18% |
| Medicine and Dentistry | 13 | 15% |
| Nursing and Health Professions | 6 | 7% |
| Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 5 | 6% |
| Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science | 3 | 4% |
| Other | 21 | 25% |
| Unknown | 21 | 25% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 113. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 27 July 2022.
All research outputs
#359,652
of 24,946,857 outputs
Outputs from BMC Infectious Diseases
#91
of 8,389 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#6,622
of 305,174 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Infectious Diseases
#2
of 144 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 24,946,857 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 98th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 8,389 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 10.6. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 98% of its peers.
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We're also able to compare this research output to 144 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.