| Title |
Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
International Journal of Biometeorology, March 2016
|
| DOI | 10.1007/s00484-016-1149-4 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Romualdas Juknys, Arvydas Kanapickas, Irma Šveikauskaitė, Gintarė Sujetovienė |
| Abstract |
The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: -9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple. |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 26 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 26 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Researcher | 5 | 19% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 4 | 15% |
| Student > Bachelor | 3 | 12% |
| Student > Master | 3 | 12% |
| Professor > Associate Professor | 2 | 8% |
| Other | 3 | 12% |
| Unknown | 6 | 23% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 7 | 27% |
| Environmental Science | 6 | 23% |
| Unspecified | 1 | 4% |
| Physics and Astronomy | 1 | 4% |
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 1 | 4% |
| Other | 1 | 4% |
| Unknown | 9 | 35% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 5. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 08 March 2016.
All research outputs
#5,904,928
of 22,877,793 outputs
Outputs from International Journal of Biometeorology
#593
of 1,297 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#82,182
of 299,003 outputs
Outputs of similar age from International Journal of Biometeorology
#7
of 21 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 22,877,793 research outputs across all sources so far. This one has received more attention than most of these and is in the 73rd percentile.
So far Altmetric has tracked 1,297 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 11.1. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 52% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 299,003 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 72% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 21 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 57% of its contemporaries.