Title |
How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?
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Published in |
Sustainability Science, January 2018
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DOI | 10.1007/s11625-017-0525-2 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Xuanming Su, Hideo Shiogama, Katsumasa Tanaka, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yasuaki Hijioka, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jingyu Liu |
Abstract |
We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO2 (- 1.2 GtCO2 to 19.4 GtCO2), whereas this difference is 12.0 GtCO2 (- 6.9 GtCO2 to 5.1 GtCO2) for the 1.5 °C target (17-83% range). Total radiative forcing in 2100 is estimated to be 3.3 (2.7-3.9) Wm-2 for the 2 °C case and 2.5 (2.0-3.0) Wm-2 for the 1.5 °C case. Carbon prices in 2100 are 482 (181-732) USD(2005)/tCO2 and 713 (498-1014) USD(2005)/tCO2 for the 2 and 1.5 °C targets, respectively. We estimate GDP losses in 2100 that correspond to 1.9 (1.2-2.5)% of total gross output for the 2 °C target and 2.0 (1.5-2.7)% for the 1.5 °C target. |
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Finland | 1 | 100% |
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Members of the public | 1 | 100% |
Mendeley readers
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Country | Count | As % |
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Unknown | 37 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
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Researcher | 7 | 19% |
Student > Ph. D. Student | 6 | 16% |
Student > Master | 4 | 11% |
Other | 2 | 5% |
Student > Doctoral Student | 1 | 3% |
Other | 5 | 14% |
Unknown | 12 | 32% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
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Environmental Science | 8 | 22% |
Economics, Econometrics and Finance | 6 | 16% |
Earth and Planetary Sciences | 2 | 5% |
Medicine and Dentistry | 2 | 5% |
Social Sciences | 2 | 5% |
Other | 2 | 5% |
Unknown | 15 | 41% |