RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
Remember when Western governments threw out all their pandemic planning and response measures, and instead decided to listen to an idiot that's been wrong about every pandemic, and enacted Totalitarian restrictions backed by no evidence whatsoever? 😅
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
@imperialcollege
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
Prof. Ferguson should be out of a job.
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
RT @AlexBerenson: Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" perc…
Hey, remember when Neil Ferguson and @imperialcollege predicted Covid would wreck Africa in part because "90 to 100" percent of Covid patients with "severe pneumonia" would die if they didn't get on those life-saving "mechanical ventilators"? Good times.
@KasperKepp @OscarTengmark @AgnesWold This was a preprint by researchers not related to @imperialcollege However very official results from Ferguson et al. were published in @ScienceMagazine https://t.co/T8cAsF2QJR https://t.co/qn9Ey98qXA To this date,
PS : report 12 is now published in @ScienceMagazine https://t.co/T8cAsEKHvJ, data here https://t.co/Imb0Gct2EX, and below results for Sweden Contrary to report 13 in @Nature there is no "matter arising" Anyone with sufficient connexion to fix this, feel
@CclLEUNG @tripperhead In this study from 2020 the IFR was estimated to rise by factor of 3 in high income locations when resources constrained (see their Figure 2E). In HK we estimate the IFR increased by 2.5x at peak of 5th wave due to reduced resources
MODELOS DE TRANSMISIÓN: La otra para del estudio se sustenta en la modelación matemática de los modelos de trasmisión, letalidad e impacto en general para calcular el "peor escenario". Fundamentalmente utilizando dos estudios. https://t.co/2JpBqicAMe
Koronaan on nyt kuollut 5,523,841 ihmistä. Ja tämä siis vaikka olemme käytännössä sulkeneet yhteiskuntamme ja rajoittaneet maiden välistä liikkumista kovalla kädellä. Mitä olisikaan tapahtunut ilman rajoituksia? 40 miljoonaa kuolemaa? (https://t.co/508x
@valy_s @bicidiario Guarda, gli autori della ciofeca sono gli stessi di quest’altra pubblicata qui 👇🏾👇🏾. Nel 2020 scrissero che in Africa ci sarebbero stati milioni di morti qui. Ancora non li hanno arrestati purtroppo. https://t.co/nfXRQndqjw
@Michele_Arnese Sono gli stessi autori di questo studio qui 👇🏾👇🏾. Dopo giorni di attente analisi, nel 2020, giunsero alla conclusione che il Covid avrebbe causato un’ecatombe in Africa e nei paesi poveri. Diffidare diffidare https://t.co/nfXRQndqjw
@RiccardoValassi @GiovaQuez E diffidiamo. Gli autori sono gli stessi di questo studio. Dopo giorni e mesi di attente analisi, nel 2020 scrissero che nelle regioni a basso tenore di vita era lecito attendersi 2,4 morti ogni 1000 abitanti. Milioni, quindi, i
@AstorAaron @EricTopol @imperialcollege Look their previous study: millions of deaths in Africa, they said back in 2020: “we estimate 2.1 (95% UI 1.0–3.3) deaths per 1000 population in an LIC and 2.4 (95% UI 1.1–3.9) deaths per 1000 population” https://t.c
@Gerardo_344 @EricTopol @andrew_lilico @imperialcollege The guys of imperial are the same of this study, which was forecasting millions of deaths in Africa: “we estimate 2.1 (95% UI 1.0–3.3) deaths per 1000 population in an LIC and 2.4 (95% UI 1.1–3.9) d
@txsportsnerd @ldbrochu @PoliticsMom @ABC @GStephanopoulos I’m not sure why I’m bothering but https://t.co/woOMk8cV5m
@dgurdasani1 @ArisKatzourakis @cathshaffer Imperial model of IFR effects in LICs https://t.co/KBOW3dleGo Paper on Iran used age stratified IFR fitted to Iranian demog from: https://t.co/U5EblAP6ju But O'Driscoll had 23/25 serosurveys from HIC to deriv
@TeamBaDJane @bart_e_anderson @hipotmeetkettle @RufusSG Translation: you cannot disprove the paper or this https://t.co/JTCJSPE66p
@TeamBaDJane @bart_e_anderson @hipotmeetkettle @RufusSG You haven't shown this paper to be wrong. https://t.co/tCCBcEZTQ1 Note R0 is up to 7 in COVID delta. One-third of the world’s population became infected with Spanish flu and its R0 was lower at aroun
@TeamBaDJane @bart_e_anderson @hipotmeetkettle @RufusSG On the contrary. We avoided much much worse. Note I provide citations , you did not. https://t.co/tCCBcEZTQ1 and https://t.co/ok6aJcn45y
@TeamBaDJane @AdotKitz @pezzertron @25_cycle @morcette @drkohilathas @ToniaBuxton @gmcuk @DrAseemMalhotra @DrJBhattacharya @MattGubba @alanvibe @thecoastguy @mrmarkdolan @TonyHinton2016 @LozzaFox @dockaurG I have been vaccinated. It saves lives. You denied
@Catlove40476297 @CovidSerology @GidMK Imperial college has previously modeled IFR in the absence of treatment in the case of LMIC being completely overwhelmed or inaccessible. Still dominant factor is age, and recall that world life expectancy in 1910 was
@T19R84 @RKI_fuer_Euch @rki_de @biainfection @CBcheraoui 1. Publizierte Literatur lesen. 2. Überlegen wann Metaanalysen sinnvoll sind bzw. welche Bedingungen für eine sinnvolle Metaanalyse erfüllt sein müssen. https://t.co/9lmVekpYIy https://t.co/hzDt8M
RT @CovidSerology: @GidMK @zeynep @BorisBarbour A lot of groups have attempted to work this out and have provided reasonable estimates. COV…
@GidMK @zeynep @BorisBarbour A lot of groups have attempted to work this out and have provided reasonable estimates. COVID IFR in the absence of HC can go from 0.39% to 1.63% in an LMIC setting https://t.co/BG2khgr3Ty Hospital excess IFR due to overloadi
@GidMK @zeynep @BorisBarbour CFR/IFR for untreated COVID is very high. This is known since April 2020 and we've had even stronger evidence since then. If you plugged in numbers from the science paper below into your calculations, the numbers suddenly align
@KienitzThorsten @Belacqua11 @dieBasis_Wesel Eine Studie des Londoner Imperial College geht in diesem Zusammenhang von etwa 40 Millionen Toten aus, wenn man keine Gegenmaßnahmen ergriffen hätte. Quelle: https://t.co/Ua957KSV1a
@PienaarJm @drvictoriafox @mgmgomes1 As stated earlier in the thread, suppression decreased R to below 1 long before reaching HIT. https://t.co/RVW5JS4Czv https://t.co/VOTSjYnFb0 https://t.co/Ei4KTHWEoN https://t.co/UpxKlTBsBE
@drvictoriafox @2cities2worlds "initial suppression of the epidemic is caused by the combined effect of mitigation measures" https://t.co/d0OE2j8r9M "Suppression [...] in which epidemic spread is reversed to reproduction number (R) <1" https://t.co/LCK
@analytic_footy @PhilWMagness @cjsnowdon @s8mb it’s nevertheless looks like a useful piece of work, for example it explores the effects of different age structures on potential Covid outcomes, probably why it was published in Science … so good to be pointe
@mikejohansenmd @DevanSinha IFR from 1st wave in Mumbai was about 0.35%. Due to HC limitation in rural areas, it is expected that IFR in these areas would be higher (>0.5%) - See two attempts at adjusting for this below https://t.co/NPqgTIuuVj https:/
@DevanSinha Tables are found in supplement. The consensus is supposedly front-line doctors, cuz you can't do a trial on hos vs lack-hos mortality. I think this model of LIC has been demonstrated on Syria, Yemen and Sudan's massive excess deaths https://t.c
@DevanSinha @willbott4 @ThatRyanChap If mean IFR from metro areas are ~0.2% (https://t.co/ScVOjyuzUS), wouldn't the IFR be higher if we consider rural populations where HC access is lower? https://t.co/sgVv22N7LF
@cacheticolorada @davidbautistaqf @Mariaporia ¿de este tipo? https://t.co/qfhWlQPFVJ
@cds_1891 @RamonMendezGala Que esta cuenta sea parodia, no quiere decir q atrás no haya alguien normal. Te dejo un enlace y quedo a tu disposición para evacuar dudas. Mis raíces uruguayas me tiran de vez en cuando y ver pseudo científicos o personas pedant
RT @CovidSerology: @rfitz77 @ScuvyBob @neipate96 @BarneyFlames Capacity and timing matters a lot (Looking at available from LMIC areas in A…
@rfitz77 @ScuvyBob @neipate96 @BarneyFlames Capacity and timing matters a lot (Looking at available from LMIC areas in Africa and Middle east illustrates this). Also IFR of untreated COVID is likely very high. See modelling data for impact (or lack of) for
@MarciaPinho19 @oGrandeAlberto @inespedrosa_pt Foi publicado depois de revisão por pares na revista Science. Quando esse artigo de jornal for publicado numa revista cientifica, com revisão de pares passa a ter o mesmo valor. https://t.co/oLOZQGIHm9
@DiseaseEcology I'm open to revisiting the total toll of Covid in Africa, but whatever has happened there, if we need to look this closely, is nothing like a) Americas or Europe or b) what many respected voices predicted, even several months into pandemic.
Buenos resultados en la pandemia estarían mediados por (entre otros factores) sistemas de salud y tejidos sociales fuertes (EJ: "https://t.co/46OoYR4Mcy y también https://t.co/g8b5dJ0oYi). Es momento de actuar para refortalecernos.
@Nermalone @zorinaq @VanGennepD @MLevitt_NP2013 Here's one example... https://t.co/6Ay9meVUAw
RT @azraghani: New paper just released: The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income coun…
@lrossouw @rcr_pereira @SACEMAdirector @theSANBS @PienaarJm @ExoExplorer3 Are you also adjusting for hospital overloading? We have strong evidence for this effect raising mortality and IFR. https://t.co/mLga9x0BNC https://t.co/sgVv22N7LF https://t.co/m2
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries https://t.co/rQRqBLEipl
@MenonBioPhysics @muradbanaji @shananalla Factoring in excess deaths due to hospital overcrowding and modelling for COVID IFR (https://t.co/T2weRSEFa7) in the absence of adequate medical care (can be 1-5% IFR), means the IFR for LMICs can be very different
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries https://t.co/tzlgnyi2Ha
RT @CovidSerology: Overall, as espoused in an earlier thread, a higher CFR in areas with patient overload/fewer healthcare resources could…
RT @CovidSerology: Overall, as espoused in an earlier thread, a higher CFR in areas with patient overload/fewer healthcare resources could…
RT @CovidSerology: Overall, as espoused in an earlier thread, a higher CFR in areas with patient overload/fewer healthcare resources could…
RT @CovidSerology: Overall, as espoused in an earlier thread, a higher CFR in areas with patient overload/fewer healthcare resources could…
RT @CovidSerology: Overall, as espoused in an earlier thread, a higher CFR in areas with patient overload/fewer healthcare resources could…
Overall, as espoused in an earlier thread, a higher CFR in areas with patient overload/fewer healthcare resources could result in significant overestimation in back calculating seroprevalence from mortality data. https://t.co/VmIu6rnp4R
@StephenBDugmore @PienaarJm @braidedmanga Individuals who needs high flow O2 but do not get it will die. We have both modelling and real world data to show this effect clearly. Basically, we should think differently about IFRs from Europe/US vs say South A
@StephenBDugmore @PienaarJm @braidedmanga They are a myriad of factors but one important factor is that on a population level, age alone is not the deciding factor in pandemic outcome. Healthcare access is very crucial and likely more important than age. h
RT @CovidSerology: 2. Is it possible IFR is higher than reported in the literature? There is modelling and observational evidence to sugges…
RT @CovidSerology: 2. Is it possible IFR is higher than reported in the literature? There is modelling and observational evidence to sugges…
2. Is it possible IFR is higher than reported in the literature? There is modelling and observational evidence to suggest CFR and IFR will differ greatly depending on healthcare capacity and availability. https://t.co/sgVv22N7LF
@JuanPabloTorran @b_ttos @fraoneto @todonoticias Esta equivocado. No insista sobre un tema que evidentemente desconoce. Aquí le dejo una. Hay muchas; y opinion de expertos, ayer le pase algunos sitios donde puede encontrarlas https://t.co/4ptYPXnBFt
RT @RegaCarlos: COVID19; estrategias en países como la Argentina; desafíos: hacinamiento, dificulta distanciamiento; pobreza, aumenta morta…
@shananalla @KernNoris This is what i suspect is happening. Lower ends of the C.I estimates from serology was the actual attack rate and such AR is not enough to prevent another surge as you rightly point out https://t.co/YeoxxfImzu
RT @RegaCarlos: COVID19; estrategias en países como la Argentina; desafíos: hacinamiento, dificulta distanciamiento; pobreza, aumenta morta…
RT @RegaCarlos: COVID19; estrategias en países como la Argentina; desafíos: hacinamiento, dificulta distanciamiento; pobreza, aumenta morta…
RT @RegaCarlos: COVID19; estrategias en países como la Argentina; desafíos: hacinamiento, dificulta distanciamiento; pobreza, aumenta morta…
COVID19; estrategias en países como la Argentina; desafíos: hacinamiento, dificulta distanciamiento; pobreza, aumenta mortalidad; comorbilidades, muchas, por la pobreza; pobre sistema de salud; poca espalda economica. Salida: USAR MUCHO LA INTELIGENCIA htt
@OYCar @1nationtory @GidMK @whippletom It could also be that the conclusions from this paper is in play. If individuals requiring high-flow oxygen have received insufficient, lower flow rate increasing CFR so actual attack rate is much lower https://t.co/s
Paper 2, papernya mas @andradjaafara https://t.co/MYWrJQPTZ4 yg mengolah & menganalisa data utk menentukan pengaruh antara: demografik, pola kontak, keparahan penyakit, dan kualitas&kuantitas fasilitas kesehatan
RT @DrPacoMoreno1: Este articulo explica la necesidad de cumplir las 3 medidas de prevención del #COVID2019 en países con sistemas de salud…
@dan613 @AtomsksSanakan @youyanggu @Cat_Ho Imperial's modeling report based on the assumption that 50-100% hospitalization- or ICU-required patients will die if they lack access, has implied a quadrupled IFR range 1-5% depending the population age https://
@yasharahsay Yes, a lot has been said about the impact of healthcare on IFR (https://t.co/AcFsehdo2B) in LIC & LMIC. The IFR estimates we used were based on sero studies from 45 countries including Kenya, Pakistan, Panama among others (not just the 'v
RT @azraghani: New paper just released: The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income coun…
RT @azraghani: New paper just released: The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income coun…
@CovidSerology @ExoExplorer3 @MRC_Outbreak @WHO @UKinSudan @CDCGlobal @ECDC_EU @AfricaCDC @UKRI_News @The_MRC @imperialcollege @ImperialSPH Sure. Similar to assumption used in https://t.co/Wunl0BoRpP, where assume that individuals requiring high-flow oxyge
@ExoExplorer3 @MRC_Outbreak @WHO @UKinSudan @CDCGlobal @ECDC_EU @AfricaCDC @UKRI_News @The_MRC @imperialcollege @ImperialSPH I am trying to access the underlying report on spikes in Burials but so far no luck. I'll revert when i take a look. Its also not e
Most of the effect of COVID-19 so far has been on High-Income countries, but the effect on low- and middle-income countries could be much worse as it continues to spread. #covid19 #suppression #pandemic #publicpolicy https://t.co/wVVifs7MIZ
@yaneerbaryam @zeynep yea, superspreader events are key. goes back to Walker et al. science 2020 https://t.co/lAKjdEsYHy https://t.co/E7Mdzih94N
@andykings101 @badamsSE1 @BallouxFrancois @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @ProfKarolSikora I believe it had 31 authors and was indeed published in Science a few months after (after peer review:) https://t.co/rTd1K0HGMT
RT @ZulmaCucunuba: Aquí nuestro artículo que intenta proyectar escenarios de supresión y mitigación. https://t.co/jqek4L3pHn
RT @ZulmaCucunuba: Aquí nuestro artículo que intenta proyectar escenarios de supresión y mitigación. https://t.co/jqek4L3pHn