Trends and factors associated with dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil

Enny Santos Paixão, Maria da Conceição Nascimento Costa, Laura Cunha Rodrigues, Davide Rasella, Luciana Lobato Cardim, Alcione Cunha Brasileiro, Maria Gloria Lima Cruz Teixeira

Studies that generate information that may reduce the dengue death risk are essential. This study analyzed time trends and risk factors for dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil from 2001 to 2011. Time trends for dengue mortality and fatality rates were analyzed using simple linear regression. Associations between the dengue mortality and the case fatality rates and socioeconomic, demographic, and health care indicators at the municipality level were analyzed using negative binomial regression. The dengue hemorrhagic fever case fatality rate increased in Brazil from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.67; p=0.036), in patients aged 0-14 years (β=0.48; p=0.030) and in those aged ≥15 years (β=1.1; p<0.01). Factors associated with the dengue case fatality rate were the average income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.038) and the number of basic health units per population (MRR=0.89; p<0.001). Mortality rates increased from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.350; p=0.002).Factors associated with mortality were inequality (RR=1.02; p=0.001) high income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.005), and higher proportions of populations living in urban areas (MRR=1.01; p<0.001). The increases in the dengue mortality and case fatality rates and the associated socioeconomic and health care factors, suggest the need for structural and intersectoral investments to improve living conditions and to sustainably reduce these outcomes.