"EMMA Study: a Brazilian community-based cohort study of stroke mortality and morbidity"

Alessandra Carvalho Goulart

Stroke has a high burden of disability and mortality. The aim here was to evaluate epidemiology, risk factors and prognosis for stroke in the EMMA Study (Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity). Prospective community-based cohort carried out in Hospital Universitário, University of São Paulo, 2006-2014. Stroke data based on fatal and non-fatal events were assessed, including sociodemographic data, mortality and predictors, which were evaluated by means of logistic regression and survival analyses. Stroke subtype was better defined in the hospital setting than in the local community. In the hospital phase, around 70% were first events and the ischemic subtype. Among cerebrovascular risk factors, the frequency of alcohol intake was higher in hemorrhagic stroke (HS) than in ischemic stroke (IS) cases (35.4% versus 12.3%, P < 0.001). Low education was associated with higher risk of death, particularly after six months among IS cases (odds ratio, OR, 4.31; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.34-13.91). The risk of death due to hemorrhagic stroke was greater than for ischemic stroke and reached its maximum 10 days after the event (OR: 3.31; 95% CI: 1.55-7.05). Four-year survival analysis on 665 cases of first stroke (82.6% ischemic and 17.4% hemorrhagic) showed an overall survival rate of 48%. At four years, the highest risks of death were in relation to ischemic stroke and illiteracy (hazard ratio, HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.26-2.68) and diabetes (HR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.07-1.97). Major depression presented worse one-year survival (HR: 4.60; 95% CI: 1.36-15.55). Over the long term, the EMMA database will provide additional information for planning resources destined for the public healthcare system.