The utility of the bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis at prognosticating adverse outcomes.

TN Makofane, DL Clarke, F Anderson, L Ferndale

Identification of at-risk patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) early on in the course of hospital admission remains a challenge. Early identification of these patients can facilitate early referral to tertiary hospitals with skilled multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and high-dependency health care facilities. This study retrospectively reviewed the ability of the bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score and other biochemical markers to predict organ failure and mortality in acute pancreatitis. All patients presenting to Grey's Hospital with AP between 2012 and 2020 were included in the study. The BISAP score and other biomarkers were evaluated at presentation in predicting organ failure (≥ 48 hours duration) and mortality. A total of 235 patients were included in the study. A total of 144 (61%) were male and 91 (39%) were female. Alcohol (81%) and gallstones (69%) were the commonest aetiological factors amongst males and females respectively. A total of 42 (29%) males and 10 (11%) females developed organ failure during their hospital stay. The mortality rate was 11.8% for males, 6.59% for females, with an overall mortality of 9.8%. A BISAP score of 2 had a sensitivity of 87.98% and specificity of 59.62% at predicting organ failure (positive predictive value [PPV] = 88.46%, negative predictive value [NPV] = 58.49%, 95% confidence interval [CI], p = 0.001). A BISAP score of 3 and above had a sensitivity of 98.11% and specificity of 69.57% at predicting mortality (PPV = 96.74%, NPV = 80%, 95% CI, p = 0.001). A multivariate analysis of biomarkers bicarbonate, base excess, lactate, urea and creatinine either failed to reach statistical significance or had specificity that is too low to prognosticate organ failure and mortality. The BISAP score has limitations at predicting organ failure, but it is a reliable tool for predicting mortality in AP. Due to its simplicity of use, it should be used in resource-constrained settings to triage at-risk patients in smaller hospitals, for early referral to tertiary hospitals.