Urologists have been criticized for over-treating men with low-risk prostate cancer, and for passively observing older men with higher-risk disease. Proponents of active surveillance (AS) for low-risk disease and critics of watchful waiting (WW) for higher-risk disease have advocated for more judicious use of observation. Thus, we compared two population-based cohorts to determine how expectant management has evolved over the past two decades.
5,871 men with localized prostate cancer were enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Study (PCOS: 1994 to 1995) or the Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Surgery and Radiation (CEASAR: 2011 to 2012) study. We compared use of definitive treatment vs. expectant management (WW/AS) across cohorts, focusing on the influence of disease risk, age and comorbidities.
Use of WW/AS was similar in PCOS and CEASAR (14% in each). Compared to PCOS, more men in CEASAR with low-risk disease selected WW/AS (25% vs. 15%, respectively), whereas fewer men with intermediate- (7% vs. 14%) and high-risk (3% vs. 10%) disease chose WW/AS (p<0.001 for each). The association of disease risk with WW/AS was significantly larger in CEASAR than PCOS (OR, 7.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.4 to 15.7). Older age was associated with WW/AS in both cohorts, but there was no association between comorbidity and WW/AS in CEASAR.
Use of WW/AS was more aligned with disease risk in CEASAR compared PCOS, suggesting there has been a pivot from WW to AS. While older men were more likely to be observed, comorbidity had little, if any, influence.