Estimated Dietary and Health Impact of the World Health Organization’s Global Sodium Benchmarks on Packaged Foods in Australia: a Modeling Study

Kathy Trieu, Daisy H. Coyle, Emalie Rosewarne, Maria Shahid, Rain Yamamoto, Chizuru Nishida, Bruce Neal, Feng J. He, Matti Marklund, Jason H.Y. Wu

In 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) set sodium benchmarks for packaged foods to guide countries in setting feasible and effective sodium reformulation programs. We modeled the dietary and health impact of full compliance with the WHO's sodium benchmarks in Australia and compared it to the potential impact of Australia's 2020 sodium reformulation targets. We used nationally representative data on food and sodium intake, sodium levels in packaged foods, and food sales volume to estimate sodium intake pre- and post-implementation of the WHO and Australia's sodium benchmarks for 24 age-sex groups. Using comparative risk assessment models, we then estimated the potential deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years averted from cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and stomach cancer based on the reductions in sodium intake. Compliance with the WHO's sodium benchmarks for packaged foods in Australia could lower mean adult sodium intake by 404 mg/day, corresponding to a 12% reduction. This could prevent about 1770 deaths/year (95% uncertainty interval 1168-2587), corresponding to 3% of all cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and stomach cancer deaths in Australia, and prevent some 6900 (4603-9513) new cases, and 25 700 (17 655-35 796) disability-adjusted life years/year. Compared with Australian targets, the WHO benchmarks will avert around 3 and a half times more deaths each year (1770 versus 510). Substantially greater health impact could be achieved if the Australian government strengthened its current sodium reformulation program by adopting WHO's more stringent and comprehensive sodium benchmarks.