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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

Overview of attention for article published in Nature Human Behaviour, February 2023
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • Good Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (79th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
11 news outlets
blogs
2 blogs
policy
1 policy source
twitter
372 X users
facebook
2 Facebook pages
reddit
11 Redditors
bluesky
2 Bluesky users

Readers on

mendeley
96 Mendeley
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Article details
Title
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Published in
Nature Human Behaviour, February 2023
DOI 10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
Pubmed ID
Authors

Igor Grossmann, Amanda Rotella, Cendri A. Hutcherson, Konstantyn Sharpinskyi, Michael E. W. Varnum, Sebastian Achter, Mandeep K. Dhami, Xinqi Evie Guo, Mane Kara-Yakoubian, David R. Mandel, Louis Raes, Louis Tay, Aymeric Vie, Lisa Wagner, Matus Adamkovic, Arash Arami, Patrícia Arriaga, Kasun Bandara, Gabriel Baník, František Bartoš, Ernest Baskin, Christoph Bergmeir, Michał Białek, Caroline K. Børsting, Dillon T. Browne, Eugene M. Caruso, Rong Chen, Bin-Tzong Chie, William J. Chopik, Robert N. Collins, Chin Wen Cong, Lucian G. Conway, Matthew Davis, Martin V. Day, Nathan A. Dhaliwal, Justin D. Durham, Martyna Dziekan, Christian T. Elbaek, Eric Shuman, Marharyta Fabrykant, Mustafa Firat, Geoffrey T. Fong, Jeremy A. Frimer, Jonathan M. Gallegos, Simon B. Goldberg, Anton Gollwitzer, Julia Goyal, Lorenz Graf-Vlachy, Scott D. Gronlund, Sebastian Hafenbrädl, Andree Hartanto, Matthew J. Hirshberg, Matthew J. Hornsey, Piers D. L. Howe, Anoosha Izadi, Bastian Jaeger, Pavol Kačmár, Yeun Joon Kim, Ruslan Krenzler, Daniel G. Lannin, Hung-Wen Lin, Nigel Mantou Lou, Verity Y. Q. Lua, Aaron W. Lukaszewski, Albert L. Ly, Christopher R. Madan, Maximilian Maier, Nadyanna M. Majeed, David S. March, Abigail A. Marsh, Michal Misiak, Kristian Ove R. Myrseth, Jaime M. Napan, Jonathan Nicholas, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, O Jiaqing, Tobias Otterbring, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Shiva Pauer, John Protzko, Quentin Raffaelli, Ivan Ropovik, Robert M. Ross, Yefim Roth, Espen Røysamb, Landon Schnabel, Astrid Schütz, Matthias Seifert, A. T. Sevincer, Garrick T. Sherman, Otto Simonsson, Ming-Chien Sung, Chung-Ching Tai, Thomas Talhelm, Bethany A. Teachman, Philip E. Tetlock, Dimitrios Thomakos, Dwight C. K. Tse, Oliver J. Twardus, Joshua M. Tybur, Lyle Ungar, Daan Vandermeulen, Leighton Vaughan Williams, Hrag A. Vosgerichian, Qi Wang, Ke Wang, Mark E. Whiting, Conny E. Wollbrant, Tao Yang, Kumar Yogeeswaran, Sangsuk Yoon, Ventura R. Alves, Jessica R. Andrews-Hanna, Paul A. Bloom, Anthony Boyles, Loo Charis, Mingyeong Choi, Sean Darling-Hammond, Z. E. Ferguson, Cheryl R. Kaiser, Simon T. Karg, Alberto López Ortega, Lori Mahoney, Melvin S. Marsh, Marcellin F. R. C. Martinie, Eli K. Michaels, Philip Millroth, Jeanean B. Naqvi, Weiting Ng, Robb B. Rutledge, Peter Slattery, Adam H. Smiley, Oliver Strijbis, Daniel Sznycer, Eli Tsukayama, Austin van Loon, Jan G. Voelkel, Margaux N. A. Wienk, Tom Wilkening

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Timeline Attention over time Attention Score history
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Activity
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X Demographics

X Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 372 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Mendeley demographics

Mendeley demographics

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 96 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
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Geographical breakdown

Geographical breakdown
Country Count As %
Unknown 96 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status
Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 11 11%
Researcher 11 11%
Other 6 6%
Professor > Associate Professor 6 6%
Lecturer 4 4%
Other 13 14%
Unknown 45 47%
Readers by discipline
Readers by discipline Count As %
Social Sciences 8 8%
Psychology 7 7%
Business, Management and Accounting 5 5%
Computer Science 5 5%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 3 3%
Other 18 19%
Unknown 50 52%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 346. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 08 October 2026.
All research outputs
#119,874
of 34,569,529 outputs
Outputs from Nature Human Behaviour
#255
of 2,441 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#2,795
of 529,176 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Nature Human Behaviour
#15
of 74 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 34,569,529 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,441 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 145.6. This one has done well, scoring higher than 89% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 529,176 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 74 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done well, scoring higher than 79% of its contemporaries.