Long-Term Safety Analysis of the ChAdOx1-nCoV-19 Corona Virus Vaccine: Results from a Prospective Observational Study in Priority Vaccinated Groups in North India

Upinder Kaur, Zeba Fatima, Kalika Maheshwari, Vikas Sahni, Amol Dehade, Anju KL, Ashish Kumar Yadav, Sangeeta Kansal, Vaibhav Jaisawal, Sankha Shubhra Chakrabarti

Various vaccines for protection against COVID-19 were provided emergency approval in late 2020 to early 2021. There is a scarcity of long-term safety data for many of these. The main aim of this study is to provide the one-year safety results of the ChAdOx1-nCoV-19/AZD1222 vaccine and determine the risk factors of adverse events of special interest (AESIs) and persistent AESIs. This was a prospective observational study conducted from February 2021 to April 2022 in a tertiary hospital in North India and its two associated centers. Health care workers, other frontline workers, and the elderly vaccinated with the ChAdOx1-nCoV-19 vaccine constituted the study population. Individuals were contacted telephonically at pre-decided intervals for one year and health issues of significant concern were recorded. Atypical adverse events developing after a booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine were assessed. Regression analysis was conducted to determine risk factors of AESI occurrence and determinants of AESIs persisting for at least one month at the time of final telephonic contact. Of 1650 individuals enrolled, 1520 could be assessed at one-year post-vaccination. COVID-19 occurred in 44.1% of participants. Dengue occurred in 8% of participants. The majority of the AESIs belonged to the MedDRA® SOC of musculoskeletal disorders (3.7% of 1520). Arthropathy (knee joint involvement) was the most common individual AESI (1.7%). Endocrinal disorders such as thyroid abnormalities and metabolic disorders such as newly diagnosed diabetes developed in 0.4% and 0.3% of individuals, respectively. Regression analysis showed females, individuals with a pre-vaccination history of COVID-19, diabetes, hypothyroidism, and arthropathy had 1.78-, 1.55-, 1.82-, 2.47- and 3.9-times higher odds of AESI development. Females and individuals with hypothyroidism were at 1.66- and 2.23-times higher risk of persistent AESIs. Individuals receiving the vaccine after COVID-19 were at 2.85- and 1.94 times higher risk of persistent AESIs compared, respectively, to individuals with no history of COVID-19 and individuals developing COVID-19 after the vaccine. Among participants receiving a booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine (n = 185), 9.7% developed atypical adverse events of which urticaria and new-onset arthropathy were common. Nearly half of the ChAdOx1-nCoV-19 vaccine recipients developed COVID-19 over one year. Vigilance is warranted for AESIs such as musculoskeletal disorders. Females, individuals with hypothyroidism, diabetes, and pre-vaccination history of COVID-19 are at higher risk of adverse events. Vaccines received after natural SARS-CoV-2 infection may increase the risk of persistence of adverse events. Sex and endocrinal differences and timing of the COVID-19 vaccine with respect to natural infection should be explored as determinants of AESIs in the future. Pathogenetic mechanisms of vaccine-related adverse events should be investigated along with comparisons with an unvaccinated arm to delineate the overall safety profile of COVID-19 vaccines.