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Deciding with Thresholds: Importance Measures and Value of Information

Overview of attention for article published in Risk Analysis: An International Journal, January 2017
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Article details
Title
Deciding with Thresholds: Importance Measures and Value of Information
Published in
Risk Analysis: An International Journal, January 2017
DOI 10.1111/risa.12732
Pubmed ID
Authors
Abstract

Risk-informed decision making is often accompanied by the specification of an acceptable level of risk. Such target level is compared against the value of a risk metric, usually computed through a probabilistic safety assessment model, to decide about the acceptability of a given design, the launch of a space mission, etc. Importance measures complement the decision process with information about the risk/safety significance of events. However, importance measures do not tell us whether the occurrence of an event can change the overarching decision. By linking value of information and importance measures for probabilistic risk assessment models, this work obtains a value-of-information-based importance measure that brings together the risk metric, risk importance measures, and the risk threshold in one expression. The new importance measure does not impose additional computational burden because it can be calculated from our knowledge of the risk achievement and risk reduction worth, and complements the insights delivered by these importance measures. Several properties are discussed, including the joint decision worth of basic event groups. The application to the large loss of coolant accident sequence of the Advanced Test Reactor helps us in illustrating the risk analysis insights.

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Mendeley demographics

Mendeley demographics

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 37 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Geographical breakdown
Country Count As %
Unknown 37 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status
Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 8 22%
Student > Master 5 14%
Researcher 3 8%
Other 2 5%
Lecturer 2 5%
Other 4 11%
Unknown 13 35%
Readers by discipline
Readers by discipline Count As %
Engineering 6 16%
Mathematics 4 11%
Chemistry 3 8%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 2 5%
Social Sciences 2 5%
Other 6 16%
Unknown 14 38%