Forecaster’s Dilemma: Extreme Events and Forecast Evaluation

Overview of attention for article published in Statistical Science, February 2017

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In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
Among the highest-scoring outputs from this source (#17 of 760)
High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (96th percentile)

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The Forecaster’s Dilemma: Evaluating forecasts of extreme events

Pressemitteilungen - idw - Informationsdienst Wissenschaft, 10 Apr 2017

Accurate predictions of extreme events do not necessarily indicate the scientific superiority of the forecaster or the forecast…

Das Dilemma des Prognostikers: Vorhersagen extremer Ereignisse bewerten

Pressemitteilungen - idw - Informationsdienst Wissenschaft, 10 Apr 2017

Die korrekte Vorhersage von extremen Ereignissen lässt nicht unbedingt auf die überlegene Fähigkeit des Prognostikers schließen…

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