Response early in weight loss treatment predicts long-term weight change. Weight variability, independent of absolute early weight change, may also relate to long-term outcomes. This study examined whether weight variability early in treatment predicted later weight loss and maintenance.
Participants were 183 completers of a yearlong behavioral weight loss program (mean age = 51, 81% female, 69% white, mean BMI = 35 kg/m(2) ). Weight variability was calculated using weights from the first 6 and 12 weekly treatment sessions. Multiple linear regressions examined whether weight variability predicted subsequent weight change 6, 12, and 24 months later.
Weight variability over 6- and 12-week periods predicted less subsequent weight loss at 12 months (6-week: β = 0.18, P = 0.02; 12-week: β = 0.33, P < 0.01) and 24 months (6-week: β = 0.17, P = 0.03; 12-week: β = 0.15, P = 0.05). Relationships held when adjusting for covariates. Weight variability was more strongly associated with 6-month weight change in men than women (β = 0.27, P = 0.01).
Elevated weight variability early in a weight loss program predicted poor long-term outcomes, possibly reflecting inconsistent weight control behaviors. Tracking weight variability could prove useful for improving treatment outcomes.
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1569. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 18 September 2026.
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