Stefani L. Penn, Saravanan Arunachalam, Matthew Woody, Wendy Heiger-Bernays, Yorghos Tripodis, Jonathan I. Levy

Residential combustion (RC) and electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions adversely impact air quality and human health by increasing ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Studies to date have not isolated contributing emissions by state of origin (source-state), which is necessary for policy makers to determine efficient strategies to decrease health impacts. In this study, we aim to estimate health impacts (premature mortalities) attributable to PM2.5 and O3 from RC and EGU emissions by precursor species, source sector, and source-state in the continental US for 2005. We use the Community Multiscale Air Quality model employing the Direct Decoupled Method to quantify changes in air quality and epidemiological evidence to determine concentration-response functions to calculate associated health impacts. We estimate 21,000 premature mortalities per year from EGU emissions, driven by SO2 emissions forming PM2.5. More than half of EGU health impacts are attributable to emissions from eight states with significant coal combustion and large downwind populations. We estimate 10,000 premature mortalities per year from RC emissions, driven by primary PM2.5 emissions. States with large populations and significant residential wood combustion dominate RC health impacts. Annual mortality risk per thousand tons of precursor emissions (health damage functions) varied significantly across source-states for both source sectors and all precursor pollutants. Our findings reinforce the importance of pollutant-specific, location-specific, and source-specific models of health impacts in design of health-risk minimizing emissions control policies.