Matthew C. Simon, Allison P. Patton, Elena N. Naumova, Jonathan I. Levy, Prashant Kumar, Doug Brugge, John L. Durant

Significant spatial and temporal variation in ultrafine particle (UFP; <100 nanometers in diameter) concentrations creates challenges in developing predictive models for epidemiological investigations. We compared the performance of land-use regression models built by combining mobile and stationary measurements (hybrid model) with a regression model built using mobile measurements only (mobile model) in Chelsea and Boston, MA (USA). In each study area, particle number concentration (PNC; a proxy for UFP) was measured at a stationary reference site and with a mobile laboratory driven along a fixed route during a ~1-year monitoring period. In comparing PNC measured at 20 residences and PNC estimates from hybrid and mobile models, the hybrid model showed higher Pearson correlations of natural log-transformed PNC (r=0.73 vs. 0.51 in Chelsea; r=0.74 vs. 0.47 in Boston) and lower root-mean-square error in Chelsea (0.61 vs. 0.72) but no benefit in Boston (0.72 vs. 0.71). All models over-predicted log-transformed PNC by 3-6% at residences, yet the hybrid model reduced the standard deviation of the residuals by 15% in Chelsea and 31% in Boston with better tracking of overnight decreases in PNC. Overall, the hybrid model considerably outperformed the mobile model and could offer reduced exposure error for UFP epidemiology.