Elizabeth Morris, Stephen A. Feig, Madeline Drexler, Constance Lehman

This review article explores the issue of overdiagnosis in screening mammography. Overdiagnosis is the screen detection of a breast cancer, histologically confirmed, that might not otherwise become clinically apparent during the lifetime of the patient. While screening mammography is an imperfect tool, it remains the best tool we have to diagnose breast cancer early, before a patient is symptomatic and at a time when chances of survival and options for treatment are most favorable. In 2015, an estimated 231,840 new cases of breast cancer (excluding ductal carcinoma in situ) will be diagnosed in the United States, and some 40,290 women will die. Despite these data, screening mammography for women ages 40-69 has contributed to a substantial reduction in breast cancer mortality, and organized screening programs have led to a shift from late-stage diagnosis to early-stage detection. Current estimates of overdiagnosis in screening mammography vary widely, from 0% to upwards of 30% of diagnosed cancers. This range reflects the fact that measuring overdiagnosis is not a straightforward calculation, but usually one based on different sets of assumptions and often biased by methodological flaws. The recent development of tomosynthesis, which creates high-resolution, three-dimensional images, has increased breast cancer detection while reducing false recalls. Because the greatest harm of overdiagnosis is overtreatment, the key goal should not be less diagnosis but better treatment decision tools. (Population Health Management 2015;18:S3-S11).