Rachel M. Wiltshire, Christina M. Bergey, Jonathan K. Kayondo, Josephine Birungi, Louis G. Mukwaya, Scott J. Emrich, Nora J. Besansky, Frank H. Collins

Malaria is the leading cause of global paediatric mortality in children below 5 years of age. The number of fatalities has reduced significantly due to an expansion of control interventions but the development of new technologies remains necessary in order to achieve elimination. Recent attention has been focused on the release of genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes into natural vector populations as a mechanism of interrupting parasite transmission but despite successful in vivo laboratory studies, a detailed population genetic assessment, which must first precede any proposed field trial, has yet to be undertaken systematically. Here, the genetic structure of Anopheles gambiae populations in north-western Lake Victoria is explored to assess their suitability as candidates for a pilot field study release of GM mosquitoes. 478 Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes were collected from six locations and a subset (N = 96) was selected for restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq). The resulting single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker set was analysed for effective size (Ne), connectivity and population structure (PCA, FST). 5175 high-quality genome-wide SNPs were identified. A principal components analysis (PCA) of the collinear genomic regions illustrated that individuals clustered in concordance with geographic origin with some overlap between sites. Genetic differentiation between populations was varied with inter-island comparisons having the highest values (median FST 0.0480-0.0846). Ne estimates were generally small (124.2-1920.3). A reduced-representation SNP marker set for genome-wide An. gambiae genetic analysis in the north-western Lake Victoria basin is reported. Island populations demonstrated low to moderate genetic differentiation and greater structure suggesting some limitation to migration. Smaller estimates of Ne indicate that an introduced effector transgene will be more susceptible to genetic drift but to ensure that it is driven to fixation a robust gene drive mechanism will likely be needed. These findings, together with their favourable location and suitability for frequent monitoring, indicate that the Ssese Islands contain several candidate field locations, which merit further evaluation as potential GM mosquito pilot release sites.