Were public interventions relevant for containing the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil in 2020?

Vitória Berg Cattani, Thaís Araujo dos Santos, Marcelo Ribeiro-Alves, Julio Castro-Alves

Flattening the curve was the most promoted public health strategy worldwide, during the pandemic, to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and, consequently, to avoid overloading the healthcare systems. In Brazil, a relative success of public policies was evidenced. However, the association between public policies and the "flatten the curve" objectives remain unclear, as well as the association of different policies to reach this aim. This study aims to verify if the adoption of different public policies was associated with the flattening of the infection and death curves by covid-19 first wave in 2020. Data from the Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System - SIVEP-Gripe) and the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE) were used to compute standardized incidence and mortality rates. The Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) was used to obtain information about governmental responses related to the mitigation of pandemic effects, and the Human Development Index (HDI) was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. A non-linear least-square method was used to estimate parameters of the five-parameter sigmoidal curve, obtaining the time to reach the peak and the incremental rate of the curves. Additionally, ordinary least-square linear models were used to assess the correlation between the curves and the public policies adopted. Out of 51 municipalities, 261,326 patients had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Stringency Index was associated with reducing covid-19 incremental incidence and death rates,in addition to delaying the time to reach the peak of both pandemic curves. Considering both parameters, economic support policies did not affect the incidence nor the mortality rate curves. The evidence highlighted the importance and effectiveness of social distancing policies during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil, flattening the curves of mortality and incidence rates. Other policies, such as those focused on economic support, were not effective in flattening the curves but met humanitarian and social outcomes.