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Ability of crime, demographic and business data to forecast areas of increased violence

Overview of attention for article published in International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, May 2018
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • Good Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (76th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (80th percentile)

Mentioned by

blogs
1 blog
twitter
1 X user
facebook
1 Facebook page

Citations

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23 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
55 Mendeley
Title
Ability of crime, demographic and business data to forecast areas of increased violence
Published in
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, May 2018
DOI 10.1080/17457300.2018.1467461
Pubmed ID
Authors

Daniel A. Bowen, Laura M. Mercer Kollar, Daniel T. Wu, David A. Fraser, Charles E. Flood, Jasmine C. Moore, Elizabeth W. Mays, Steven A. Sumner

Abstract

Identifying geographic areas and time periods of increased violence is of considerable importance in prevention planning. This study compared the performance of multiple data sources to prospectively forecast areas of increased interpersonal violence. We used 2011-2014 data from a large metropolitan county on interpersonal violence (homicide, assault, rape and robbery) and forecasted violence at the level of census block-groups and over a one-month moving time window. Inputs to a Random Forest model included historical crime records from the police department, demographic data from the US Census Bureau, and administrative data on licensed businesses. Among 279 block groups, a model utilizing all data sources was found to prospectively improve the identification of the top 5% most violent block-group months (positive predictive value = 52.1%; negative predictive value = 97.5%; sensitivity = 43.4%; specificity = 98.2%). Predictive modelling with simple inputs can help communities more efficiently focus violence prevention resources geographically.

X Demographics

X Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profile of 1 X user who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 55 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 55 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 9 16%
Student > Master 8 15%
Student > Bachelor 5 9%
Researcher 5 9%
Professor > Associate Professor 3 5%
Other 6 11%
Unknown 19 35%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 9 16%
Social Sciences 8 15%
Engineering 3 5%
Nursing and Health Professions 3 5%
Computer Science 3 5%
Other 7 13%
Unknown 22 40%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 8. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 17 September 2020.
All research outputs
#4,549,873
of 25,382,440 outputs
Outputs from International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
#56
of 357 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#81,561
of 344,113 outputs
Outputs of similar age from International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
#1
of 5 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 25,382,440 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done well and is in the 82nd percentile: it's in the top 25% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 357 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a little more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 6.3. This one has done well, scoring higher than 84% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 344,113 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 76% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 5 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has scored higher than all of them