Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

@ConceptualJames Why am I not surprised the study they cite makes no such claim? There's no mention of the year "2030" at all, and of course they don't use inches either. https://t.co/sgL728GeTl

9/ ...punt is dat het geen echt scenario is. Het is gebaseerd op een (vrij omstreden) inschatting 👇 van wat er zou kúnnen gebeuren als Antarctica versneld smelt. https://t.co/5KLpXBVQxB

@Hannes26619336 @DerPhysiker21 Quelle: unwissenschaftliche Klimaleugner mit einer Agenda und unsicheren Website. Top 👍 Eine Eiszeit wurde z.B. war nie Konsensus. Die Liste ist voller Nonsense von isolierten Behauptungen. https://t.co/zCStlf9QVH

@auntiewillow https://t.co/zCStlf9QVH Yes they did. They are fucking oil companies. How do you think gets the additional carbon into our atmosphere?

@thoughtfultom https://t.co/zCStlf9QVH Ist 80er Jahre Exxon auch dämlich? Berechnungen, wie viel CO2 in der Atmosphäre zu welchem Temperaturanstieg führen gibt es seit Jahrzehnten.

@twogni Möp. Falsch https://t.co/Lr86f7WvQF

@Optimist231 @KenzoVandagg https://t.co/zCStlf9QVH Korrekt! 👆

@Dave_Likes_CO2 https://t.co/2AUxkwmBMG No. They knew. And did the opposite they should have done.

@MilesHind https://t.co/P22qpftyOV Hier übrigens Exxon, berühmter Verbreiter von Klima-Hysterie.

@FoooBarBazz https://t.co/Y0fVBPomgS

@keeschvanginkel @Marckonijn Ok, dus circa 10% kans op circa 2m of meer rond 2100 in hoog emissiescenario. In laag emissiescenario nog altijd circa 5% kans op circa 126cm of meer rond 2100, volgens tabel 2 in Bamber et al 2019 https://t.co/dmdi9Zv83g

@tinaagain https://t.co/Q2TJFkE0wl

RT @LukaKemp: Second, the procedures of the IPCC, particularly consensus decision-making, encourage conservative conclusions. Notably exper…

RT @LukaKemp: Second, the procedures of the IPCC, particularly consensus decision-making, encourage conservative conclusions. Notably exper…

RT @LukaKemp: Second, the procedures of the IPCC, particularly consensus decision-making, encourage conservative conclusions. Notably exper…

RT @LukaKemp: Second, the procedures of the IPCC, particularly consensus decision-making, encourage conservative conclusions. Notably exper…

AR6 ".. cumulative GWP-weighted CO2 equivalent emissions over the next decades do not yield exactly the same temperature outcomes as the same amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, because atmospheric perturbation lifetimes of the various greenhouse gases dif

RT @LukaKemp: Second, the procedures of the IPCC, particularly consensus decision-making, encourage conservative conclusions. Notably exper…

RT @LukaKemp: Second, the procedures of the IPCC, particularly consensus decision-making, encourage conservative conclusions. Notably exper…

Second, the procedures of the IPCC, particularly consensus decision-making, encourage conservative conclusions. Notably expert elicitation exercises on sea-level rise have turned up estimates double that of the maximum IPCC (AR5) projections- https://t.co/

8/ That's it. No context or explanation. Not a word on the latest science which predicts that sea levels may rise by as much as 2.3m by 2100 under business-as-usual scenarios, or the fact that entire countries may soon drown under water. https://t.co/14qbj

RT @SubUrbanGrow: Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challengin…

RT @SubUrbanGrow: Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challengin…

Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies urgently require quan…https://t.co/0BmNxIfjgq

RT @BjornLomborg: Reference for 187m flooded is https://t.co/4YqEeHWBim, only citing https://t.co/HYNe9dM0PI That reference says that adap…

Reference for 187m flooded is https://t.co/4YqEeHWBim, only citing https://t.co/HYNe9dM0PI That reference says that adaptation costing <0.02% of GDP will fix >99.8% of the problem — "the problem of environmental refugees almost disappears" https://t

#Ice sheet #contributions to future #sea-level rise from #structured expert judgment https://t.co/EGZ0BXKc9P

@___n2k1 @MoormannRainer @DerClue @JoacimKreutzer @VeroWendland @HShumanist @BjrnPeters3 @N_Schmid @Preso32 @dpomondi @Estesz @DanielS54497783 @hccd007 @Arishna12 @0Thessa @An_di_Arbeit @PatrickKausW @OliverHaas19 @tuedelkopp @Keeper_86 @tachy_ @pjanik_otm

@FeynmansMethod @PascalBraun78 @MoormannRainer @SchaferCorinna @VeroWendland @janusPrime @Arishna12 @MartinFehringe3 @hccd007 @N_Schmid @Spanni11 @HMitterwald @norbertboh @s04paps @Werktaetiger_ @DominicBarden @DerClue @OliverHaas19 @MichaelBaleanu @Chipmu

RT @BjornLomborg: eg here: highly respected climate scientists claim that 2m of sea-level rise will lead to 187 million people flooded htt…

RT @BjornLomborg: eg here: highly respected climate scientists claim that 2m of sea-level rise will lead to 187 million people flooded htt…

RT @BjornLomborg: eg here: highly respected climate scientists claim that 2m of sea-level rise will lead to 187 million people flooded htt…

eg here: highly respected climate scientists claim that 2m of sea-level rise will lead to 187 million people flooded https://t.co/4YqEeHWBim Believed by many — but wrong bc ignores adaptation. Their ref (https://t.co/iMANh1ZRqn) says real number is 600x

Denne person, Morten F Greve, kunne ikke håndtere en debat, og endte i frustration med at blokere mig, efter han havde sendt mig 6 tweets. Hvorfor er debatniveauet så lavt og folk så dårlige til at debattere? #dkpol #dkmedier #dkgreen #debatniveauet #ynk

@liberty_dane @AndreasDinesen @oestergaard Det her handler om risici. Ingen ved præcis hvad der vil ske hvornår, men det er en kendsgerning, at vi leger med stærke kræfter, hvor alt andet end best case er yderst alvorligt. Alene havniveauet er en joker af

@cloudatio Bitte besonders auch auf das erste Dokument hier achten: https://t.co/2AUxkwmBMG

RT @djspratt: ABC News: "Vic.Govt has instructed all councils to plan for 0.8m sea-level rise by year 2100”, but that is 10 years old. Need…

RT @djspratt: ABC News: "Vic.Govt has instructed all councils to plan for 0.8m sea-level rise by year 2100”, but that is 10 years old. Need…

RT @djspratt: ABC News: "Vic.Govt has instructed all councils to plan for 0.8m sea-level rise by year 2100”, but that is 10 years old. Need…

RT @djspratt: ABC News: "Vic.Govt has instructed all councils to plan for 0.8m sea-level rise by year 2100”, but that is 10 years old. Need…

ABC News: "Vic.Govt has instructed all councils to plan for 0.8m sea-level rise by year 2100”, but that is 10 years old. Needs to say: "Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2m for planning purposes” https://t

@AUSBATTERYGRAD1 @Petshopgalah @Emma4Dobell or from @PNASNews https://t.co/qtMzvGaJhE

@SchonstW @fwieschollek @Axel_Bojanowski @_donalphonso @DIEZEIT @welt Nur ist der sehr viel deprimierender, als es Klimamodelle je sein könnten. Darf ich übrigens darauf hinweisen, dass der IPCC bei der Projektion des Meerespiegelanstiegs zu konservativ wa

@tobias_blaschke @Rainer_Klute @rossreiter @David94874132 @df6ih @RA_Negm @Nuklearia https://t.co/nTyvY0FXYB

@tobias_blaschke @rossreiter @David94874132 @Rainer_Klute @df6ih @RA_Negm @Nuklearia 187 Millionen Menschen könnten durch steigenden Meerespiegel ihre Heimat verlieren. 2 Meter oder mehr sind möglich und wären katastrophal. https://t.co/tHDXBZ4M9S, https:/

@ASchmittner @RoyScranton @CColose One of the major failings of the assessment processes is over reliance on conservative models with well known flaws. There are alternatives, eg structured expert elicitation. For example, on sea level rise (well known bli

@OliverHaas19 @EricDanielski @s04paps @janusPrime @MoormannRainer @erwinloewe @avi_shomer @NoahRettberg @SimeonPreuss @DanielS54497783 @HalleVerkehrt @patfrr @hccd007 @pjanik_otm @Luegendetektor @RingoSt96374813 @search_mk @SetfloR @Rainer_Klute @dpomondi

RT @bateko71: El PNAS recogiendo información de todos los estudios reconoce que el aumento del nivel del mar será el doble que el propuesto…

El PNAS recogiendo información de todos los estudios reconoce que el aumento del nivel del mar será el doble que el propuesto por el IPCC en una modelación de colas gordas con altos rangos de incertidumbre debido a las futuras realimentaciones https://t.c

@ClimateBen @sciam I do believe that @IPCC_CH projected SLR are unrealistically low. And I'm not alone in that. See https://t.co/InrwJ7a4Z9 for a true representation of expert opinion. Few scientists think we'll have more than 1.5 m of SLR by 2100.

El #CalentamientoClimático acelera el derretimiento de los polos y esto acelera también el aumento en los niveles del mar. ¿Te imaginas cuántas ciudades costeras podrían desaparecer si no lo detenemos? #TicTacMyT Fuente: https://t.co/pMXqi53pZ1 https://t

@chriscartw83 @EY29340 Mais qu'est-ce que vous racontez ? Le pire scénario statue aujourd'hui sur une élévation de 111 centimètres. Je vous ai déjà pris un scénario très irréaliste pour vous faire plaisir (3 mètres). ➡️https://t.co/zHt74BSZZ3 ➡️https://t.

@chriscartw83 @EY29340 Parce que le Groenland va fondre maintenant ? En entier ? Vous êtes un troll, ce n'est pas possible ? Il est vraiment temps pour vous de lire de vraies études scientifiques : ➡️https://t.co/zTSSuTQVGc

.@jlbamber and coauthors have also done something similar with ice-sheet projections to characterize our deep uncertainty about future sea-level rise. https://t.co/XEG9UaBMTl

@Luegendetektor @OliverHaas19 @hccd007 @avi_shomer @MoormannRainer @Rainer_Klute @janusPrime @dpomondi @s04paps @DerClue @ForchheimEka @EricDanielski @SebastianWetz @Klima_Mahner @FridayForFuture @AntiAtomKA @BjrnPeters3 @Nuklearia Dem was @RingoSt96374813

RT @Lacertko: @NickCowern Yes: "We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainity bounds for a high em…

RT @Lacertko: @NickCowern Yes: "We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainity bounds for a high em…

@NickCowern Yes: "We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainity bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the IPCC 5AR." https://t.co/nHbHNDQRqL

@ShipsidesSteven @Majeh19 @nealasher @higgyboson1 And link: https://t.co/69nEXv3ilG

RT @dana1981: @kbo1978 @realDonaldTrump IPCC underestimates sea level rise. We could potentially see over 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100. https…

RT @dana1981: @kbo1978 @realDonaldTrump IPCC underestimates sea level rise. We could potentially see over 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100. https…

@kbo1978 @realDonaldTrump IPCC underestimates sea level rise. We could potentially see over 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100. https://t.co/YMPrmP6ha3

@Faktantarkasta1 @kaikenlaista @AriJLaaksonen @ilmastoblogi Linkki https://t.co/WflLi01HED

RT @Poptun: Higher sea levels could create 187 million climate refugees #ClimateChange https://t.co/hPTiHMpR5z https://t.co/5dr8u7Ps81

Higher sea levels could create 187 million climate refugees #ClimateChange https://t.co/hPTiHMpR5z

RT @DewiLeBars: @kbo1978 @Lijnonline @deltares @KNMI @VU_IVM @UTwente @UUGeo @bart_vd_hurk @IOPenvironment @delta_comm @mrvandenbroeke @And…

@kbo1978 @Lijnonline @deltares @KNMI @VU_IVM @UTwente @UUGeo @bart_vd_hurk @IOPenvironment @delta_comm @mrvandenbroeke @AndyShep_CPOM @IPCC_CH @WMO @jlbamber @lebars @FrankPattyn @bobkopp @deepuncertainty 2m could be reached for concentrations lower than R

With @jlbamber, @climateopp, Willy Aspinall, and Roger Cooke, we conducted a study using structured expert judgement to assess future ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise https://t.co/uPdjYbh0q2

#ClimateChange

RT @PNASNews: Global sea level rise could exceed 2 meters by 2100, according to researchers: https://t.co/9V5P9S9oGM. Learn more about the…

RT @PNASNews: Global sea level rise could exceed 2 meters by 2100, according to researchers: https://t.co/9V5P9S9oGM. Learn more about the…

RT @PNASNews: Global sea level rise could exceed 2 meters by 2100, according to researchers: https://t.co/9V5P9S9oGM. Learn more about the…

RT @PNASNews: Global sea level rise could exceed 2 meters by 2100, according to researchers: https://t.co/9V5P9S9oGM. Learn more about the…

RT @PNASNews: Global sea level rise could exceed 2 meters by 2100, according to researchers: https://t.co/9V5P9S9oGM. Learn more about the…

Global sea level rise could exceed 2 meters by 2100, according to researchers: https://t.co/9V5P9S9oGM. Learn more about the #altmetrictop100 here: https://t.co/O1Y9qA6M7G @almetric https://t.co/OxQd9f6BSa

RT @wvanwezenbeek: Place #70 @tudelft on #AltmetricTop100 with 2619 mentions. Article in @PNASNews by Bamber et al. (about ice sheet contri…

Place #70 @tudelft on #AltmetricTop100 with 2619 mentions. Article in @PNASNews by Bamber et al. (about ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise) https://t.co/GhjWForATx @TUDRepository

@ConcernedOutsi2 here is an article https://t.co/EiddnP8w2i and a scientific study https://t.co/W1X5OFOtQO about a tiny island called manhattan, or here is a map for the entire USA https://t.co/Bnp1ZrLLs0

.@jlbamber of @BristolUni unpacks his recent @PNASNews paper on using “structured expert judgment” to assess future ice sheet contributions to sea level rise. Paper here: https://t.co/rVKulvItS6 #AGU19 @GlobalMassTeam

Global total See Level Rise exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report. http

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment https://t.co/52zDLtrMhW #Ice #SheetContributions #FutureSea-levelRise

@PrinceA06779972 Indeed, sea level has been higher in the geologically recent past. As your graph shows, we've started another exponential rise that may add 2m by the year 2100, comparable to the early Holocene levels. https://t.co/ePujgpIPPJ

RT @SavOurPla: @aympontier C’est incroyable de vérifier aussi peu ses sources : savez-vous lire @aympontier ? https://t.co/boPqTlSBk5

@aympontier C’est incroyable de vérifier aussi peu ses sources : savez-vous lire @aympontier ? https://t.co/boPqTlSBk5

@DamienBescheron Résultats vérifiés depuis par plusieurs équipes de recherche et finalement publiés en 2019: 1 m en 2050, 2-5 mètres en 2100 , revue par le GIEC en 2020-2021 https://t.co/UeB28MSkas

Well I won't need gum boots for a while. Projected Ice sheet contribution to Sea level rise to 2300 AD taking thermal expansion into consideration. Estimated at 6cm - 4.6m at 2c - 5 deg c warmer. https://t.co/xSbbAbFAte https://t.co/6Xc48qs3uO

@rln_nelson @ianbrow97534170 @Cole59818957 @RegimeChangeBC @Willard1951 @CymaticWave @AtomsksSanakan @OzzmanOsgood @Kenneth72712993 @GillesnFio @StormSignalSA @swcrisis @ThijssenR @NikolovScience @Bananenrijperij @JSegor @EthonRaptor @Gladfly1 @DawnTJ90 @C

Récemment, @jlbamber a publié une étude basée sur le jugement d'experts (avec des méthodes pour calibrer chaque expert pour qu'il ait plus de poids là où il a le plus d'expertise) et trouve que 2m est dans l'intervalle à 90% des projections en 2100 #oups h

RT @PEARLAlert: This map illustrates what the north of #lka will look like if sea levels rose 2 m, as projected in 2100 (if high-emission l…

RT @PEARLAlert: This map illustrates what the north of #lka will look like if sea levels rose 2 m, as projected in 2100 (if high-emission l…

This map illustrates what the north of #lka will look like if sea levels rose 2 m, as projected in 2100 (if high-emission levels did not change). The low-lying Jaffna peninsula (part of the Tamil homeland) would be the worst affected region. Source: https

@AndersR_ @mazeson @PeterSrngrd @Energobert tex https://t.co/8jDgAx3Ru9

@VictorErem @CarstenBKK @indvs3 Sounds pretty officially catastrophic to me... https://t.co/JtiEmXGg9S https://t.co/HFa21OGvAO

@NNevdar @hardcpy @ChrisRGun when do you exactly believe the industrial revolution began...? No one disputes it's been rising steadily since slightly before the IR. However, in recent decades, this has sped up. Scientific bodies agree that it's because of

"We find that a global total sea level rise exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the @IPCC_CH in the Fifth Assessment Report." https://t.co/PDNZc

https://t.co/ao9vzBOa63

RT @PNASNews: Under a high emissions scenario, ice melt in Greenland could raise sea levels by 2 meters by 2100. In @TheScientistLLC: https…

RT @nils_gilman: @MS2513479406 “Total sea level rise exceeding 2m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenar…

@MS2513479406 “Total sea level rise exceeding 2m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario”: https://t.co/mEc0IgL77c

#ClimateStrike #ClimateAction @GretaThunberg