Title |
Influence of Population Immunosuppression and Past Vaccination on Smallpox Reemergence - Volume 24, Number 4—April 2018 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
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Published in |
Emerging Infectious Diseases, April 2018
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DOI | 10.3201/eid2404.171233 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
C. Raina MacIntyre, Valentina Costantino, Xin Chen, Eva Segelov, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Anthony Kelleher, Mohana Kunasekaran, John Michael Lane |
Abstract |
We built a SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model of smallpox transmission for New York, New York, USA, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, that accounted for age-specific population immunosuppression and residual vaccine immunity and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the effect these parameters might have on smallpox reemergence. At least 19% of New York's and 17% of Sydney's population are immunosuppressed. The highest smallpox infection rates were in persons 0-19 years of age, but the highest death rates were in those >45 years of age. Because of the low level of residual vaccine immunity, immunosuppression was more influential than vaccination on death and infection rates in our model. Despite widespread smallpox vaccination until 1980 in New York, smallpox outbreak severity appeared worse in New York than in Sydney. Immunosuppression is highly prevalent and should be considered in future smallpox outbreak models because excluding this factor probably underestimates death and infection rates. |
X Demographics
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Australia | 20 | 11% |
United States | 18 | 10% |
Canada | 9 | 5% |
United Kingdom | 7 | 4% |
France | 3 | 2% |
Côte d'Ivoire | 3 | 2% |
Germany | 3 | 2% |
Curaçao | 3 | 2% |
Comoros | 2 | 1% |
Other | 11 | 6% |
Unknown | 104 | 57% |
Demographic breakdown
Type | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Members of the public | 153 | 84% |
Scientists | 16 | 9% |
Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 11 | 6% |
Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 3 | 2% |
Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Unknown | 37 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Student > Master | 5 | 14% |
Student > Ph. D. Student | 5 | 14% |
Student > Bachelor | 4 | 11% |
Researcher | 4 | 11% |
Other | 3 | 8% |
Other | 2 | 5% |
Unknown | 14 | 38% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Medicine and Dentistry | 7 | 19% |
Environmental Science | 2 | 5% |
Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science | 2 | 5% |
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 2 | 5% |
Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 2 | 5% |
Other | 7 | 19% |
Unknown | 15 | 41% |