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Virulence attenuation during an influenza A/H5N1 pandemic

Overview of attention for article published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, January 2013
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (90th percentile)
  • Good Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (79th percentile)

Mentioned by

blogs
1 blog
twitter
1 tweeter

Readers on

mendeley
49 Mendeley
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Title
Virulence attenuation during an influenza A/H5N1 pandemic
Published in
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, January 2013
DOI 10.1098/rstb.2012.0207
Pubmed ID
Authors

H. Rogier van Doorn, Maciej F. Boni, Tran Dang Nguyen, Menno D. de Jong

Abstract

More than 15 years after the first human cases of influenza A/H5N1 in Hong Kong, the world remains at risk for an H5N1 pandemic. Preparedness activities have focused on antiviral stockpiling and distribution, development of a human H5N1 vaccine, operationalizing screening and social distancing policies, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. The planning of these interventions has been done in an attempt to lessen the cumulative mortality resulting from a hypothetical H5N1 pandemic. In this theoretical study, we consider the natural limitations on an H5N1 pandemic's mortality imposed by the virus' epidemiological-evolutionary constraints. Evolutionary theory dictates that pathogens should evolve to be relatively benign, depending on the magnitude of the correlation between a pathogen's virulence and its transmissibility. Because the case fatality of H5N1 infections in humans is currently 60 per cent, it is doubtful that the current viruses are close to their evolutionary optimum for transmission among humans. To describe the dynamics of virulence evolution during an H5N1 pandemic, we build a mathematical model based on the patterns of clinical progression in past H5N1 cases. Using both a deterministic model and a stochastic individual-based simulation, we describe (i) the drivers of evolutionary dynamics during an H5N1 pandemic, (ii) the range of case fatalities for which H5N1 viruses can successfully cause outbreaks in humans, and (iii) the effects of different kinds of social distancing on virulence evolution. We discuss two main epidemiological-evolutionary features of this system (i) the delaying or slowing of an epidemic which results in a majority of hosts experiencing an attenuated virulence phenotype and (ii) the strong evolutionary pressure for lower virulence experienced by the virus during a period of intense social distancing.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profile of 1 tweeter who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 49 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United Kingdom 2 4%
Germany 1 2%
France 1 2%
Kenya 1 2%
United States 1 2%
Sweden 1 2%
Vietnam 1 2%
Unknown 41 84%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 13 27%
Researcher 13 27%
Student > Bachelor 5 10%
Student > Doctoral Student 4 8%
Student > Postgraduate 3 6%
Other 6 12%
Unknown 5 10%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 18 37%
Medicine and Dentistry 8 16%
Unspecified 4 8%
Mathematics 3 6%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 3 6%
Other 8 16%
Unknown 5 10%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 12. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 07 February 2013.
All research outputs
#306,538
of 4,507,280 outputs
Outputs from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
#365
of 2,191 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#26,049
of 285,688 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
#33
of 162 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 4,507,280 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 93rd percentile: it's in the top 10% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,191 research outputs from this source. They typically receive more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 8.0. This one has done well, scoring higher than 83% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 285,688 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 90% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 162 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done well, scoring higher than 79% of its contemporaries.